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A new study by the Center for European Policy Analysis suggests that Russia and China are lagging behind NATO countries, including Canada, in the race to develop drones capable of operating in harsh Arctic conditions.
The report, released this week, identified infrastructure gaps, questioned the adequacy of investment and identified procurement barriers that hinder the integration of programs that have not yet been implemented in Western armies.
“The procurement of Arctic-capable drones across NATO remains fragmented, slow and risky, as most alliances prioritize systems designed for hot climates and recently adapt them for use in the Arctic, thus resulting in few certified NATO platforms ready for the Arctic,” said the report written by research associate Federico Gordon Borsari and US retired Davis’Skipski. deputy secretary general for defense investment.
“Both Russia and China are investing in their passive capabilities and defense mechanisms and are strengthening and expanding their presence in the Arctic, exploiting surveillance and security gaps,” the report said.
Driven in part by the establishment of the war in Ukraine, Russia is investing heavily in infrastructure and robotics in all domains to reduce power gaps and strengthen conventional forces.
“Annual drone production now exceeds 1.5 million units, supported by China, Iran and others, and Norwegian intelligence sources expect that the number of Russian unmanned systems will grow by a large order in the coming years,” said the CEPA study, which noted that the Russian Armed Forces recently established a new drone control center in Kamchatka, in a system that travels far from the sea. anti-submarine warfare.
Similarly, China has prioritized the development of “remote sensing, polar navigation technology, passive systems and communication networks” in the Arctic, the report said.
This week, Chinese media reported that the country’s military had successfully tested a new unmanned aerial vehicle, known as the Jiutian, capable of launching up to 100 small drones mid-flight.
Canada does not currently have drones capable of patrolling the Arctic. The Air Force is in the process of acquiring 11 MQ-9B Reaper drones from General Atomics, with initial delivery expected in 2028 and full operational fleet in 2033.
The ship was supposed to begin arriving this year, but its delivery was postponed to prepare “to operate in high-altitude northern environments, including the Arctic,” the Department of National Defense told CBC News in 2023.
The Reaper also required additional testing and qualification work to ensure it could operate and be maintained in Canada’s harsh winters.
Transport Canada recently acquired a special Israeli-made Hermes 900 Starliner aircraft for Arctic surveillance from Elbit Systems Ltd., but the department’s main aviation services are integrated with the Department of Defence. How and when it will be used is unclear.
The CEPA report underscored the urgency for Canada and the United States to address the northern drone gap.
“North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) radar networks are aging, and their modernization program will take two decades to complete, leaving the Arctic route to North America vulnerable to new threats at a time of unprecedented competition,” it said.
Although this study does not single out one nation that is united in the Arctic, it notes that the recent entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO provides an opportunity to come together in the common north.
The Canadian government and military are trying to get Canada’s edge in the new drone arms race by taking on industry challenges, and testing everything from naval drones that can attack ships to lasers that can fire drones in the air.
“There are many gaps between NATO’s current assets and the specific needs of Arctic operations,” the study said.
“Few vehicles are winterized or hardened for continued use in the region’s harshest conditions.”
The report said allies need to think about building better cold-rated batteries, thermal management systems and other critical front-end components to maintain high levels of extreme weather variability at bases across the North.
At a higher, strategic level, the report says, NATO needs to take the gap in visibility more seriously.
“First of all, NATO does not have a formal Arctic strategy,” the CEPA report said.
“Although this is a critical policy issue, the absence of a dedicated regional strategic framework risks diminishing resources and cooperation between regional partners at various levels.”
