Boxing Day sales are expected to raise £3.6 billion for UK retailers this year, nearly £1 billion less than in 2024, as cost-of-living pressures continue to weigh on household spending.
The forecast comes from Barclays, which tracks around half of all credit and debit card transactions across the UK. The expected decline represents a blow to retailers during the all-important “golden quarter,” traditionally the most profitable time of the year.
Seven in ten shoppers say continued price pressures will affect how much they spend during the sale, with fewer shoppers planning to participate overall. The number of people intending to shop on Boxing Day fell to 26 per cent, down from 28 per cent last year.
However, those who leave are expected to spend more money on their own. The average Boxing Day shopper plans to spend £253, up from £236 last year, suggesting that few but keen bargain hunters will be shopping.
Almost half of consumers say they will use discounts to stock up on regular products at lower prices, while one in four intend to focus on essentials only. Apparel remains the most sought-after category, followed by food and beverage, and beauty products, with many shoppers prioritizing premium brands at reduced prices.
The fragile vision follows the disappointment of preparing for Christmas in the retail industry. Sales fell 0.2 percent in November and remain about 3 percent below pre-pandemic levels, as consumers continue to prioritize savings after several years of rising inflation and interest rates.
Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said shoppers have shown “how much they spend in 2025”, a trend she expects to continue on Boxing Day. He added that artificial intelligence is increasingly shaping the way consumers experience retail events, helping them compare prices, generate gift ideas and set up personalized alerts.
Two in five shoppers say they will use AI tools to hunt for the best deals this Boxing Day, although half of those surveyed are concerned the technology could encourage overspending. Despite the rise of digital tools, many shoppers still plan to do at least some of their shopping in-store, with many citing the experience as part of the festive culture.
However, for a key few people, Boxing Day is less about transactions and more about time off. Almost a quarter of people say this day should be spent at home with family rather than on the high street.
“Boxing Day is still an important time for retailers, fueled by the anticipation of Christmas,” Johnson said. “But it has evolved to reflect the needs of modern consumers, where value, convenience and technology are changing the way people shop.”
