Why Yemen’s expansion threatens to reignite civil war, sparks widespread tension
The United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday it would withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen after Saudi Arabia backed a call for UAE troops to leave the country within 24 hours. in a major crisis between the two Gulf powers and oil producers.
The move followed a Saudi-led airstrike on the southern Yemeni port of Mukalla on Tuesday, targeting what it described as a shipment of weapons from the UAE for various forces.
The Saudi airstrikes were an important step in a country on a key international trade route that threatens to bring new risks to the Persian Gulf region. It warned that it considers the Emirati’s actions “very dangerous.”
The latest escalation comes as Yemen remains mired in more than a decade of civil war involving a complex interplay of sectarian grievances and the involvement of regional governments.
Here’s a breakdown of what happened and what it could mean for the region.
Who is involved?
The secessionist Southern Transitional Council, or STC, a group backed by the UAE, this month seized most of the provinces of Hadramout and Mahra, including the oil fields.
STC is the most powerful group in southern Yemen, with significant financial and military support from the UAE. It was founded in April 2017 as an umbrella organization for groups that want to restore South Yemen as an independent country, as it was between 1967 and 1990.
The Iran-aligned Houthis, meanwhile, control the country’s most populous regions, including the capital Sanaa.
Once a rag-tag group in Yemen – one of the world’s poorest countries – Iran has helped the Houthis become major players capable of disrupting global shipping in the Red Sea. CBC’s Paul Hunter breaks down the rise of the Houthis and what the world needs to watch. [Correction: In a previous version of this video, we reported that Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by several countries and entities, including the United Nations. In fact, the UN does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization.]
Another group in the latest war includes the Yemeni army, which reports to the internationally recognized government. They are allied with the Hadramout Tribal Alliance, an alliance of local tribes supported by Saudi Arabia.
These forces are concentrated in Yemen’s largest province of Hadramout, which stretches from the Gulf of Aden in the south to the border with Saudi Arabia in the north. The oil-rich province is a major source of oil in southern Yemen.
The outbreak has disrupted the near-peace in Yemen’s war, which has intensified in recent years after the Houthis reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia that halted their attacks on the kingdom in exchange for a halt to Saudi-led strikes on their territory.
What happened?
The conflict threatens to spark a new decade-long war in Yemen, where forces allied with Iran-backed Houthi rebels could face each other in the Arab world’s poorest country.
The latest escalation highlights strained relations between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which has backed rival sides in Yemen’s war with the Houthi rebels during a period of unrest in the Red Sea region. The two nations, although closely aligned on many issues in the Middle East, are increasingly competing over the region’s economic and political issues.
Once two pillars of regional security, Gulf heavyweights have seen their interests diverge on everything from oil quotas to national influence.
Declaring its national security a red line, Saudi Arabia earlier on Tuesday accused the UAE of pressuring separatists in southern Yemen to carry out military operations that reached the kingdom’s borders.
It was Riyadh’s strongest language so far against the UAE in the conflict between the neighbors, who once cooperated against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, but whose interests in Yemen have gradually grown in recent years.
The latest moves have strengthened the STC’s positions across southern Yemen, potentially giving them leverage in any future negotiations to resolve the Yemen conflict. The STC has long demanded that any settlement should give south Yemen the right to self-governance.
Othe origins of the crisis
The war in Yemen began in 2014, when the Houthis marched from their stronghold in northern Saada.
They took the capital, Sanaa, and forced the internationally recognized government into exile. Saudi Arabia and the UAE went to war the following year in an attempt to restore the government.
The new war pits the STC against the forces of the internationally recognized government and allied nations, as both are members of the warring faction of the Houthi rebels in the country’s wider civil war.
Recent developments in the region
Earlier this month, STC forces stormed Hadramout and took control of major provincial facilities, including PetroMasila, Yemen’s largest oil company, after a brief clash with government forces and their tribal allies.
This came after the Saudi-backed Hadramout Tribal Alliance seized the PetroMasila oil field in late November to pressure the government to agree to its demands for a larger share of oil revenues and improved services for Hadramout residents.
STC apparently took this step as an excuse to control Hadramout and its oil fields for itself and to expand the areas under its control in Yemen.
STC troops then marched into Mahra province on the border with Oman and took control of the border between the two countries. In Aden, UAE-backed forces recaptured the presidential palace, which serves as the seat of the ruling Presidential Council.
Saudi forces also withdrew earlier this month from bases in Aden, a Yemeni government official said.
The withdrawal was part of a Saudi “repositioning” strategy, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
On Friday, Saudi Arabia targeted the Hadramout region in airstrikes that analysts interpreted as a warning to the separatists to halt their advance and leave the governorates of Hadramout and Mahra.
