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As the Ukrainian coalition meets in Paris, Trump’s attention is on the Western Hemisphere

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The catchphrase going into Tuesday’s coalition meeting on Ukraine in Paris seems to be: expect the unexpected.

That was clearly the vibe as leaders from 30 or so countries, including Prime Minister Mark Carney, gathered in the French capital.

While European leaders were trying to justify the implications of the US military action in Venezuela to efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine, Carney was dealing with the political fallout of Chrystia Freeland’s acceptance of the role of adviser to the Ukrainian government while she was a member of Parliament.

A former cabinet minister will be him special, unpaid economic advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He was Canada’s ambassador to Ukraine for reconstruction but has since resigned from that post and will soon be stepping down as a member of Parliament.

But, until now, the planned capture and prosecution of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores under US law was the event that troubled European leaders on the eve of discussing some security guarantees for Ukraine.

WATCH | Venezuela and Trump’s security strategy:

How Venezuela plays into Trump’s national security plans

Nicolás Maduro’s capture by the US military and President Donald Trump’s plan to revive Venezuela’s oil industry could be seen as a page from his new national security strategy. CBC’s Eli Glasner breaks down the strategic goal of dominating the Western Hemisphere and what it could mean for Canada and the world.

In addition, the President of the United States Donald Trump he reiterated his desire to take Greenland from Denmark in an interview with The Atlantic.

“I have to say this directly to the United States: It makes absolutely no sense to talk about the need for the United States to take over Greenland,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in a social media response.

“So I would strongly urge the United States to stop threats against a close historical partner and another country, as well as other people, who clearly say they are not for sale.”

Trump told reporters on Air Force One that European leaders know the United States needs Greenland.

A number of Nordic countries, however, including Finland, have expressed support for Denmark to retain control of the Arctic region.

Moderated response

Carney is expected to meet separately with both Frederiksen and Finnish President Alexander Stubb on the sidelines of the Ukraine meeting.

But it is unlikely that European Union leaders will want to address the Venezuela question directly in the next few days for fear of angering Trump and his envoys in Paris – and possibly jeopardizing US support for the alliance with Ukraine.

Carney welcomed the moderate response to Maduro’s arrest, noting that Canada has not seen Maduro’s “repressive and criminal regime” since the 2018 election that many in the international community say was stolen from the opposition.

Carney welcomed the “opportunity for freedom, democracy, peace and prosperity of the Venezuelan people,” who “have the right to self-determination and to build their own future in a peaceful and democratic society.”

However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told several US political shows on Sunday that the transition to democracy was on hold for now and that Washington would work with Maduro’s allies. He said the truth is that most of the opposition in Venezuela has fled the country and it will take time to restore their presence.

Both Trump and Rubio invoked the Monroe Doctrine – or “Donroe Doctrine” as Trump has come to call it – which asserts that Washington has the right to exercise its authority within the Western Hemisphere.

WATCH | UN Security Council on Maduro’s arrest:

The UN Security Council strongly condemns the US action against Maduro in Venezuela

The 15-member United Nations Security Council met at UN headquarters in New York hours before Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appeared in Manhattan federal court on drug charges, including a narco-terrorism conspiracy. Most member states openly criticized the US for its actions, and Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, in a statement read by UN political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo, said ‘I am very concerned about the possible intensification of instability in the country.’

Trump, in his remarks in Greenland, said that Russian and Chinese ships were circling the island’s territory.

Russia used the same logic to justify the invasion of Ukraine.

Whether Trump’s actions in Venezuela, which has among the world’s largest proven oil reserves, will embolden Moscow is an open question.

One US defense expert said he believed there was momentum for an end to the fighting in Ukraine despite last weekend’s events.

“Russia has reason to take a break from fighting right now and redeploy its forces,” said Matt Schmidt, an associate professor and national security expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut and a former instructor at the US Army War College.

“It’s taken a huge loss of personnel and a huge loss of equipment that needs to be replaced. That’s why it ultimately needs to get to the table or win the war quickly.”

Coalition leaders hope to extract some security guarantees from Ukraine that would prevent Russia from simply using the ceasefire as a break.

Leaders will also focus on rebuilding.

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