Since its launch in 1990, Hubble has revolutionized our understanding of the cosmos. A space telescope reveals a universe full of galaxies, stars and planets instead of what we once saw as empty patches of sky. Today, the telescope’s aging hardware is being dragged down toward Earth, and Hubble may be nearing its end sooner than expected.
A team of scientists has estimated that the Hubble Space Telescope could re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and meet its fiery death in 2033. That said, there’s a 1 in 10 chance that the observatory could come to an end by 2029, leaving us with just three more years of mind-bending observations and data from the observatory.
One note from the STScI town hall at #AAS247 today: Hubble’s median reentry date, based on current modeling, is 2033; a
– Jeff Foust (@jeff_foust) January 7, 2026
The new information was presented at the meeting of the American Astronomical Society, held this week in Phoenix, Arizona, according to SpaceNews reporter Jeff Foust. Although NASA currently has no plans to develop Hubble into stable orbit, there is still hope for a privately funded alternative to the telescope.
The end of an era
NASA launched the Hubble Space Telescope on April 24, 1990, aboard the Space Shuttle. Adoption. It once operated as high as 360 miles (579 kilometers) in low Earth orbit, but the telescope has slowly descended over the years due to the pull of space. Hubble is currently 326 miles (525 kilometers) above Earth, according to NASA.
NASA has enlarged the telescope many times over the years to keep it from burning up in Earth’s atmosphere. In 2022, NASA and SpaceX announced a study of the possibility of raising the Hubble to its original orbit of 373 miles (600 kilometers), allowing it to remain operational for a few more years. However, until now, NASA has not announced any plans to follow up on Hubble’s orbit.
Scientists behind the new measurements combined Hubble’s orbital data with atmospheric gravity. The gravitational force varies depending on the activity of the sun, with the Sun driving changes in the density of the Earth’s upper atmosphere.
“Solar flux levels are currently longer and higher than previously expected, leading to a predicted re-entry of the Hubble Space Telescope if no re-entry mission is undertaken,” according to the Hubble reentry tracker.
Due to increased rates of solar radiation, scientists estimate that Hubble’s reentry will occur within five to six years. In the best case scenario, the telescope still has 15 more years before it enters space in 2040. The worst case scenario, however, predicts that Hubble will return again in 2029.
As the telescope’s altitude decreases, the density of the atmosphere increases, accelerating Hubble’s near-missing decay. When Hubble reaches an altitude of 248 kilometers (400 miles), it will likely be a year or less before re-entering space, according to the tracker.
Hall of fame
Before Hubble was launched, astronomers didn’t know exactly how big or old the universe was. Using its 94.5-inch-wide (2.5-meter) mirror, the telescope accurately measured the distance of stars and galaxies, enabling scientists to determine the rate of expansion of the universe.
The telescope produced such dynamic images as the Hubble Deep Field in 1995, which captured 342 long exposures of a small patch of space in the constellation Ursa Major. The image revealed nearly 3,000 distant galaxies at different stages of their evolution, allowing astronomers to look back in time.
Credit: NASA, Robert Williams, and the Hubble Deep Field Team (STScI)
Since its launch, Hubble has made an estimated 1.7 million observations, including awe-inspiring images like the pillars of the Universe in the Eagle Nebula, data that helped discover dark energy, and evidence confirming the existence of black holes.
Another modern way
Over the past few decades, large space telescopes have been funded by national agencies or international collaborations. As the aerospace industry continues to grow, however, there may be new alternatives to this old model.
This week, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt announced funding for a large space telescope and three ground-based observatories. The space telescope, named Lazuli, could be another upgrade to Hubble, reports Ars Technica.
The investment comes from Schmidt Sciences, which was founded by Schmidt and his wife, Wendy. Although the amount invested by the couple was not disclosed, it will go towards building the Schmidt Observatory System. Lazuli, if realized, would be the first privately funded telescope in history.
The telescope boasts a 94-inch (2.4-meter) mirror and orbits the Earth in an elliptical orbit much farther than Hubble’s original orbit. Schmidts aims to launch Lazuli in late 2028.
“We are sitting on decades of technological advances since Hubble,” Arpita Roy, who leads the Astrophysics & Space Institute at Schmidt Sciences, is quoted in Ars Technica as saying. “Lazuli is a modern take on Hubble, with a bigger mirror, faster response, and different instruments.”
