The US invasion of Venezuela creates a risk, an opportunity for terrorist groups

The US invasion of Venezuela has shifted the base of terrorist groups operating across the country’s borders with Colombia, raising fears of possible Venezuelan government officials, while opening the door to a wider conflict if US boots ever fall on the ground, local security experts say.

Reports of an increase in terrorist incidents on both sides of the border have emerged since the attack on January 3. The most powerful terrorist group in the region, the National Liberation Army (ELN), has reportedly closed some camps in Venezuela, fearing that it may be sold by state officials to US authorities, leading to strikes, experts said.

“They are reorganizing their security structures and principles, integrating and updating their social control systems maintained by the ELN in certain communities in Venezuela where their leaders are,” said Jorge Mantilla, a Bogotá-based expert on armed conflicts and national security.

The ELN has also suspended training in the country and plans to develop a special forces unit with the help of the Venezuelan military, Mantilla said.

“There is a lot of uncertainty about what will happen,” he said.

However, the ELN has long been anticipating a US attack on Venezuela, Mantilla said.

In September, Pablo Beltrán, one of the ELN’s main negotiators, suggested in an interview that the US would attack Venezuela because of its resources.

In 2019, the ELN sent a letter to Maduro that was discovered by Colombian intelligence, warning the then Venezuelan president of traitors within the Venezuelan military’s top brass, Mantilla said.

Continental ambitions

The attack could also open the door for the ELN to achieve its long-desired goal of becoming a guerrilla force on the continent if the US military establishes a presence in the country or if the Venezuelan government splits into factions, he said.

“This will be the military and political platform that the ELN has been hoping for … to turn into what they call a continental guerrilla, a symbol of resistance, not in Colombia or Venezuela, but in Latin America,” Mantilla said.

The leader of one of the main enemies of the ELN insurgents along the Venezuela-Colombia border released a video statement late this week calling for the insurgent groups to make a similar deal with the Venezuelan military to oppose the US.

Ivan Mordisco leads a breakaway group from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which was officially disbanded in 2017. He he said the armed groups should put aside differences because “they are facing the same enemy.” Mordisco, whose real name is Néstor Gregorio Vera Fernández, called for a meeting between the leaders of the different terrorist organizations.

Gerson Arias, a researcher for the Colombia Ideas for Peace Foundation, said he doubts that anyone can answer Mordisco’s phone because he is not trusted.

Mordisco also brings a lot of heat as one of Colombia’s most wanted criminals, Arias said.

The Colombian government of President Gustavo Petro has placed a bounty of approximately $1 million on his head.

The ELN, of Venezuela has a long history

A group like ELN, with an estimated 6,000 to 8,000 strong, operating in Colombia and Venezuela while controlling about 1,200 kilometers of borders, has no incentive to make peace with Mordisco’s organization, Arias said.

Arias said that the ELN operates in the southern regions of Venezuela Amazonas and Bolivar, including an area rich in natural resources such as rare minerals. It relies on illegal mining and drug trade as some of its main sources of income.

The ELN has a long history with the Venezuelan government since the presidency of Hugo Chavezwho was elected in 1998, Arias said.

ELN leadership moved to Venezuela in 2002 and the group shares the same political views as the Venezuelan government, Arias said. It considers the defense of Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution to be an important task.

“The ELN saw itself as the guardian of Venezuela, but, little by little, it turned into a place where it could develop its political and military project,” said Arias.

In a recent phone call, US President Donald Trump and Petro agreed to work together to fight the ELN, said Colombian Interior Minister Armando Benedetti, in an interview with local radio. Petro is scheduled to visit the White House next month.

Eliana Paola Zafra, a human rights lawyer in the city of Cúcuta, Colombia, said that for a long time the US has provided funds to the Colombian military to fight the country’s armed groups, but it has never brought peace.

“We need a politics of complete peace, we need to empower Latin American communities to protect life, to protect peace, to protect human rights,” said Zafra.