As US President Donald Trump continues to threaten to annex Greenland, experts warn the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – of which Canada is a member – is at risk.
Hours before the foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark meet with senior US officials at the White House on Wednesday, Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social to push for US control of the island.
“NATO is becoming more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES,” Trump wrote. “Anything less than that is unacceptable.”
Greenland is a sovereign territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, a member of the NATO military alliance. Last week, Trump hinted at possible action.
“If we don’t do it the easy way, we will do it the hard way,” he said.
Article 5 is one of the key principles of the 76-year-old military alliance and states that “an armed attack by one NATO member shall be considered an attack by all members, and shall result in the obligation of each member to assist.”
The only time the article was invoked was after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
The alliance has never faced one member attacking another.
“While NATO has survived conflicts between its members in the past, there is no precedent for a real internal attack,” said Nicole Covey, a fellow at Canada’s Global Affairs Institute.
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“After all, there is this general rule that partners should not attack each other if they want to maintain any kind of good bond,” he added.
It is unlikely that the alliance will survive if the US, the leader of the group, attacks another member, said Gaëlle Rivard-Piché, executive director of the CDA Institute.
“I think if the United States attacks the NATO alliance, it will be the end of the alliance. I don’t see how the alliance will survive such an event. I don’t see a military attack, but who knows, right?” he said.
Since Trump has made this speech, many NATO allies, including Canada, have come out in support of Denmark and Greenland, while other European countries on Wednesday announced that they are sending troops to Greenland to strengthen security in the Arctic.
Although Prime Minister Mark Carney said Gov. General Mary Simon will visit on an unspecified date, it is not yet clear if the Canadian military will be part of that effort.
Global News reached out to the Canadian Forces.
But Carney recently noted that NATO can provide security for Denmark as the alliance does for all members.
“We are partners in NATO. It’s a defense alliance. We can provide that security. As NATO, we can provide security for all of NATO, including Greenland,” Prime Minister Carney told reporters at the Canadian embassy in Paris last week.
“The future of Greenland is the decision of Greenland and Denmark alone – it is their decision.”
The response from NATO and EU leaders is “expected,” Covey said.
“Greenland is threatened by the United States and it will damage the credibility of both the EU and NATO leadership if they do not openly support Greenland,” he said.
However, member states should also walk the path of not provoking Trump, said Rivard-Piché.
“It’s a stick and a carrot, but their stick is not very big,” he said, adding that the US still holds the largest share of NATO’s budget.
According to the Atlantic Council, the US spends 928 billion dollars on its defense budget, almost twice that of Europe and Canada combined.
For Canada and its allies, years of reliance on the US have weakened their ability to defend themselves in a situation like this, Rivard-Piché said.
“That was a fair criticism of Canada and the fact that we haven’t invested much in defense in the last few decades, but now we need to step up,” he said.
In June, Canada joined other NATO countries in pledging five percent of its budget to defense spending by 2035. A big part of that could go to strengthening Canada’s capabilities in the Arctic, Rivard-Piché said.
“We are investing in our technical capabilities to increase our situational awareness of the entire domain from the sea floor to space. We are investing in advanced technology and underwater technology, so that we can monitor the region and know what is happening,” he said.
Denmark said Trump’s claim of an imminent threat against Greenland from Russia and China was inaccurate.
“To say that this region is crawling with Chinese and Russian ships is not true,” said Rivard-Piché.
The likelihood of a military conflict in Greenland is “very remote” but “not zero,” Covey said.
“Logically, a military conflict in Greenland between NATO allies should be unthinkable, but the Trump administration has shown that it is willing to take the unexpected,” he said.
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