Britain’s heavy reliance on China for zero-emissions technologies such as batteries could put up to 90,000 manufacturing jobs at risk in the event of a major supply chain shock, according to a new report.
Analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warns that a major disruption of battery parts, lasting up to a year, could cripple the UK car industry, drastically reducing production of electric vehicles and threatening factory jobs across the country.
The report is a model of a situation where a country’s conflict, such as the crisis over Taiwan, or a natural disaster disrupts China’s battery production and processing. In that event, UK battery and car production could almost halve, with widespread knock-on effects across the supply chain.
Researchers estimate that about 67,000 jobs in EV production, 8,000 in battery production and nearly 15,000 roles across the entire battery supply chain could be at risk, taking a total of nearly 90,000 jobs.
The IPPR says China’s dominance of battery materials and accessories gives Chinese electric car manufacturers a built-in advantage over UK and European rivals, especially in times of disruption.
China is the world’s largest producer of batteries and battery inputs, including refined lithium, cathodes and anodes. Even where the UK sources battery cells from Europe or Japan, the report notes that many of those manufacturers themselves rely on Chinese raw materials, leaving Britain indirectly exposed.
By 2030, the IPPR estimates that 47% of UK battery demand will still be met through imports. For cathodes, that number rises to 80%, while anodes are expected to be completely imported. In the event of a supply disruption, battery output can drop by 50%, resulting in the production of about 583,000 fewer electric vehicles in one year.
Pranesh Narayanan, director of research at IPPR, said the UK’s exposure reflected growing weakness in global trade.
“The UK is a small, open trading country in a global economy whose waters are rising by the day,” he said. “Trade wars, regional conflicts and global shocks have ultimately hurt the UK because we rely heavily on overseas supply chains for essential goods, including clean energy technologies.”
To reduce risks, the IPPR urges ministers to accelerate domestic production of key battery components and key minerals, while also diversifying international supply chains away from over-reliance on any one country.
The report suggests encouraging collaboration between UK firms and Asian manufacturers, and targeted industry support to build resilience in the supply chain.
Laura Chappell, a researcher at IPPR, said that economic stability should be the main objective of British foreign and industrial policy.
“Diplomats must work to build relationships that support Britain’s future energy security,” he said. “This would be a win-win, supporting jobs and growth both in the UK and in partner countries.”
The findings are likely to sharpen the debate in Whitehall about the national security implications of the zero-sum transition. A separate report last year by the Royal United Services Institute warned that China’s overreliance on clean energy technology poses strategic risks.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has faced criticism from the Conservatives, who say his push for a zero-emissions plan by 2030 risks “tying Britain to Beijing” with more Chinese solar panels and batteries.
The government has previously rejected that interpretation, insisting that it “will never jeopardize national security” and saying the biggest long-term risk lies in continuing to rely on volatile fuel markets dominated by authoritarian states.
However, the IPPR report adds new urgency to calls for a strong industrial strategy, warning that without decisive action, Britain’s Net zero ambitions could leave key sectors of its manufacturing base dangerously exposed.
