As Trump looks to Greenland, should Canada go it alone on Arctic security? – Nationally
US President Donald Trump’s push to acquire Greenland has made the issue of Canadian sovereignty and Arctic security “very difficult,” experts say, raising questions about whether the US can continue to be a reliable partner in bilateral defense partnerships such as NORAD.
Yet many of those same experts warn that it would be unwise for Canada to abandon that relationship and try to go it alone in the Far North — both because of the huge cost of replacing American military power and the long-term damage it could do to North America’s collective security.
For now, they say, Canada’s best option would be to simply wait out a Trump presidency.
“I think Canada can take some honest steps to show [to the U.S.] that he is a constant and reliable partner, but there is this big wild card in the form of a president who is focused on Greenland and currently, it seems, the Canadian Arctic,” said Timothy Sayle, a professor of history at the University of Toronto whose research focuses on NATO and Arctic security.
NORAD said on Monday it will send aircraft to the US Pituffik Space Base in northern Greenland, where US and Canadian forces will support “long-planned” operations aimed at strengthening defense ties between North America and Denmark.
A NORAD mission called Operation Noble Defender focused on security in Greenland and North America was launched in 2018, a year before Trump publicly expressed his desire to buy Greenland from Denmark.
Trump has stepped up his rhetoric on territorial acquisitions this year, threatening US military action if a diplomatic deal is not reached. He has repeatedly stressed that Denmark cannot protect Greenland and that the US is needed to protect America, including the future “Golden Dome” missile defense system, which Trump said Canada would also benefit from.
These threats also underscored Trump’s desire, laid out in his national security agenda, for US dominance over the Western Hemisphere – putting Canada in a critical position.
On Tuesday night, Trump posted on social media what appears to be an artificially created image of a map with the American flag superimposed over the US, Canada, Greenland and Venezuela.
And Canadians have never forgotten Trump’s repeated threats to make Canada the “51st state.”
While that rhetoric has faded in recent months, Trump told the World Economic Forum in a speech on Wednesday that “Canada lives because of the United States,” addressing Prime Minister Mark Carney directly, adding: “Remember that, Mark.”
NBC News reported over the weekend that Trump has been privately complaining about Canada’s “dangers” in the Arctic, although the report said Trump was not voicing those concerns as long as he viewed ongoing security talks between Canada and the US as “productive.”
Those reported talks come as Trump calls for increased security in the Arctic as part of an unprecedented $1.5 billion U.S. defense budget, including new icebreakers he said will patrol waters in the Far North.
“The problem is not that the United States will not protect the Canadian Arctic,” Sayle said. “The issue is there [whether] the US will be the one to protect the Canadian Arctic without input or saying so.
“Anything Canada can do to increase its capabilities and show its commitment can help reduce the argument that Americans need to help protect Canada or deal with that area, and maybe remove any really challenging claims about sovereignty. But if the president gets an idea in his head, you don’t know how long he’s going to stay there.”
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, Carney said Canada “is calling for focused dialogue to achieve our shared goals of security and prosperity in the Arctic,” including cooperation with the Baltic and Nordic partners in NATO.
He told reporters in Doha, Qatar on Sunday that Canada is doing its part.
“I had discussions with the NATO secretary general in Paris 10 days ago… about how we are going to develop that security umbrella. [in the Arctic]. It’s something that Canada is already working on,” he said.
Carney said Tuesday that Canada is on track to double its total defense spending by the end of the decade, with “unprecedented” investments in Arctic security, including “snow boots.”
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The prime minister highlighted the recently signed strategic security cooperation with European and Indo-Pacific countries, including joining the EU’s SAFE defense procurement program, while also prioritizing domestic procurement and manufacturing in an effort to develop Canada’s defense industrial sector – all in an effort to move away from dependence on the US.
But Richard Shimooka, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute who studies defense policy, warned Carney needs to remember the ongoing need to continue cooperating with the US in certain areas, especially in NORAD.
“There is no way out of this relationship,” he said.
“There are many of these things [Canada is doing on Arctic security enhancement] it would be very difficult to the point where it would be impossible to do without NORAD, or a bilateral type of security continuity in place. That’s just the amount of money the US government pours into signals intelligence, say, or long-range radars. All those systems, we cannot replicate and provide adequate security on our own. “
Even if Canada wanted to withdraw from NORAD, experts say, it would take at least a decade and billions of dollars more to adequately secure its Arctic defenses.
“There is no situation where we, Canada alone, can protect our part of the North American aerospace base by ourselves with the capabilities that we have,” said Balkan Devlen, director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Transatlantic Program.
“There is no problem with five percent [of GDP]”, he added, referring to the new NATO defense spending – driven by Trump – that Canada has promised to meet. “Maybe we will need to go seven, eight, nine percent in defense spending to be able to do anything of that kind.”
An example of how long it took Canada to update its NORAD capabilities was revealed recently in government documents presented to Parliament last year on a new Arctic military satellite communications network known as the Enhanced Satellite Communications Project – Polar (ESCP-P).
The network is part of the nearly $40 billion NORAD modernization program announced by 2022. The 20-year plan includes new over-the-horizon radar systems to detect approaching threats, improved communication networks and new defense capabilities such as warplanes and submarines.
Documents tabled in Parliament last month state the current planned date for ESCP-P to come online is 2037. Full operational capability is expected by 2041, the documents said, although the Department of National Defense has been looking for ways to speed up the work.
National Defense documents released in September state that $7.6 million has been spent on the project from May 2025. The government last month signed strategic partnerships with Canadian firms Telesat and MDA Space to develop the network.
Most of NORAD’s development projects are still in their early stages, but the department said 15 will be “costed, prioritized and accelerated accordingly” by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, Ottawa has yet to announce the results of a review of its $19 billion deal to buy F-35 stealth fighters from US Lockheed Martin.
The review was announced shortly after Carney took office in March and was prompted by Trump’s tariffs and sovereignty threats against Canada, prompting European companies such as Saab to supply the jets needed instead.
Shimooka said sticking with the F-35 is another example of where Canada needs to align with the US, despite the differences with Trump.
“The plain truth is that if you take away from the F-35 program, you’re shooting yourself in the foot,” he said, pointing to the thousands of Canadian jobs that rely on training and maintenance that would be lifted. “You’re not helping to develop a quality Canadian industry — not to mention you’re pissing off the American people.”
Sayle said Canada still cannot be locked into Trump’s ever-changing “tracks” no matter how much he increases his defense spending and accelerates procurement.
He pointed to Trump’s use of tariffs to force Canada and other nations to fight fentanyl trafficking — which didn’t stop after Canada announced new border security and fentanyl-related measures — as an example of that reality.
“Canadians have options, they can work with what appear to be reasonable and normal partners in Washington, but the president has the power to make that more difficult by asking for things that Canada can’t deliver,” he said.
That dynamic could change after Trump leaves office, or even the midterm elections in the US, which could see Trump’s Republican Party lose control of Congress, Shimooka said.
“Most Americans don’t want this,” he said of the annexation of Greenland. “And we are equally important to them [in Arctic security] because of our places.”
