Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris have a long relationship they circled each other.
They both entered the same political fluidityit attracted the same set of Democratic donors and, for a time, even shared it the same campaign advice groupoRs.
Harris moved from San Francisco da strong advocate in elected positions on Sacramento again Washington before running for president twice unsuccessfully.
Newsom stepped up The Mayor of San Francisco to the lieutenant governor to Government of Californiathere he kept quiet and cooked as Harris leaped past him into the presidency. While working in the White House, Newsom tried any number of ways to put himself in the national spotlight.
Now they both have at least one eye in the Oval Office, setting up a potential clash of egos and ambitions that has been brewing for decades.
Newsom, whose term as governor expires in January, has been running for president since the 2024 polls closed and Democrats were shocked to see Harris lose to Donald Trump.
Harris, who has focused on writing and promoting his campaign history — while giving a political speech here and there — has not publicly announced that he will seek a third term in the White House. But, remarkably, he has yet to rule out the possibility.
In a CNN interview that aired Sunday, Newsom was asked about the prospect of facing off against his longtime foe in the race for the Democratic nomination. (The intrepid California governor is embarking on his own national book tour, promoting both an “adoption memoir” published Tuesday and his announced presidential bid.)
“Well, I’m San Francisco now, you’re LA,” Newsom joked, referring to Harris’ post-Washington residence in Brentwood. “So there is a little distance between the two of us.”
He then becomes zen-like, saying that fate will decide whether the two will meet in the 2028 premiere. “You can only control what you can’t control,” Newsom told CNN host Dana Bash.
Ten years ago, Newsom and Harris took a detour to keep their careers from colliding.
In 2015, Barbara Boxer said she would step down after her fourth term in the US Senate. The inauguration presented a rare opportunity for political advancement after years in which a handful of seniors held California’s top elected offices. Between Lt. Gov. Newsom and state Atty. Gen. Harris, there was no lack of ambition.
After a weekend of intense negotiations, Newsom passed the Senate race and Harris jumped in, making himself the front-runner for Boxer’s seat, which he won in 2016. Newsom waited and was elected governor in 2018, succeeding Jerry Brown.
When they were in their favorite roles, the two got along well. Each campaigned for the other. But, in private, there has never been mutual respect or great love.
Come 2028, there will undoubtedly be plenty of Democrats looking to replace President Trump. The last wide-open team competition, in 2020, drew more than a dozen major competitors. So it’s not like Harris and Newsom will face off in a one-on-one battle.
But competing on the national stage, with the country’s biggest political prize at stake, is something Hollywood may have written for Newsom and Harris as a way to settle, once and for all, their long-standing feud.
The two Californians will start off with good looks and charm.
Those who know them well, having seen Newsom and Harris up close, cite some strengths and weaknesses.
Harris is thick-skinned, they suggest, and disciplined. His luck is organized events, such as debates and speeches.
Newsom is a policy wonk, too risk-averse and too willing to wade into challenging and even hostile settings.
Newson is very familiar with the ecosystem of social media, podcasts and the like. Harris has the advantage of a long tenure on the national stage and has nothing like the personal scandals that have dogged Newsom.
But Harris’ problem, it was widely agreed, is that he has run twice before and, worse, lost the last time to Trump.
“For many voters, he is yesterday’s news,” said one campaign strategist.
“He’s got a shot at him,” said one, conveying how Democratic primary voters will react to another Harris race. “You didn’t succeed, so why should we take another chance?”
(Those half-a-dozen kibbitzers who agreed to openly explore the possibilities of Newsom and Harris asked not to be identified, so they could maintain their relationship with the two.)
Most of the handicaps gave Newsom the edge in the potential matchup; one politician familiar with both would have placed their bet on Harris if he hadn’t run earlier.
“I think her lobbying of black women and stepping up as a black woman in the justice system is a strong card,” the campaign strategist said. “A white boy from California, a nice boy, he’s not a big player.”
Having said that, the diplomat also suggested that “to be marked as someone who not only lost but who lost in this situation that has set the world on fire … is too big a cross to bear.”
The consensus among these cognoscenti is that Harris will not run again and that Newsom – without any disdain – will.
Of course, only they know for sure who the principals are, and it’s possible that Harris or Newsom never decided completely.
Those who enjoy their cutting edge politics with a soap opera will have to wait.
