The world’s busiest airport is closed. Hundreds of drones are flying over several borders. Millions have taken refuge in the area. Millions of others mourn.
Rarely, in the recent history of the Middle East, has an incident of violence in one country spread to many corners of the region, and in such a short period of time.
But in the period of the first 48 hours, the US-Israeli attack deep in Iran and the assassination of the supreme leader that immediately followed revealed the Iranian response that has now affected, in one way or another, 10 countries in the Middle East: damaging infrastructure, killing lives, opening at least a new front – and symbolizing a major change in the political region.
And while US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Iran’s military losses had left it “extremely weak,” he promised that the deadly airstrikes would continue, possibly for weeks.
Iran, too, promises more attacks, apparently aimed at increasing the fallout, are yet to come.
A three-person panel will take over the duties of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following his assassination in US and Israeli strikes on Saturday. An organization called the Assembly of Experts will be tasked with finally appointing a new head of state.
But even if there is a long-term backup plan to eliminate its supreme leader, and even if its institutions ultimately survive the pressure — from outside and inside — Iran’s dictatorship is in its most critical condition since the revolution that took it to power nearly a century ago.
And whenever this conflict ends, even if there is no complete regime change, Iran will likely emerge diminished, and that would be the most transformative change in the region in generations.
A new phase of repression could create a refugee crisis
How this new situation unfolds will, of course, depend on what remains of Iran’s standing – to its neighbors, Israel and the West – its political stability and its treatment of its citizens. A new phase of political repression, for example, or civil conflict can send thousands of refugees across borders and invite foreign intervention. Another economic downturn may bring instability of another kind.
Politically, in the short term, the Gulf Arab states that were on the path of rapprochement with Iran – or those that were in favor of mediation efforts – will now, after the attack, be forced to reassess their path if any part of the regime survives.
“Regardless of how the broader conflict unfolds, the impact on Iran’s regional credibility is already significant,” Khalid Al-Jaber, executive director of the Doha-based World Affairs Council, said. he told the Atlantic Councila US think tank.
By attacking countries that have long sought economic deregulation, he said, Iran “risks deep isolation and strong regional solidarity against it.”
If the conflict they wanted to avoid deepens, the Gulf states’ decision to get involved could have lasting consequences.
In the bigger picture, the long-standing Sunni-Shia divide in the region may yet diminish as momentum and thus, re-draw the region’s political map.
Weak axis
Meanwhile, the weakening of anti-American and anti-Israeli forces may also encourage efforts to advance normal relations between Israel and the rest of the region.
Most importantly for Israel, a less hostile Iran means the neutralization of its arch-rival in the region — and the threat of becoming a nuclear power — that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been warning about for more than a decade.
If a weak anti-Israel leadership takes over, it can reduce or eliminate the so-called “axis of resistance” of countries and groups that oppose the influence of Israel and the US in the region and beyond, with Iran leading the way.
Parts of those groups can continue to work and merge and form new alliances. But with the ousting of Bashar al-Assad from Syria, and the massive humiliation of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza by Israeli forces following the October 2023 attack on Hamas – that organization’s reach had diminished before the current conflict.
A weak Iran would weaken that base.
How will China and Russia react?
In a country like Iraq, a weakened Iran would limit the impact of anti-US, Iranian-sponsored forces operating within its borders.
And again, the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khameini, mourned by millions of Shia Muslims across the region, may cause new unrest that does not resolve any notions of regional peace even if Iran is weakened. Hezbollah’s attack and Israel’s attack on Lebanon earlier Monday are a case in point.
There are still other factors that could influence Iran’s moral decline – and the future of the region: what happens to Iranian oil, currently China’s biggest buyer? And how do China and Russia react to a reformed Iran?
A changed Iran is now inevitable. The assassination of the supreme leader alone, after 36 years in power, will begin to change the landscape, Arash Azizi, a Yale University historian and author What Iranians Want: Women, Health, Freedom, he wrote in the Atlantic.
“Even in the worst case scenario, Khamenei’s death will allow Iran to abandon some of its core policies in the short to medium term — at least, its insistence on sacrificing Iran on the altar of a failed ideology,” he wrote.
Chief political reporter Rosemary Barton talks to Aaron David Miller, former US State Department Middle East adviser, about military operations in Iran. Also, Yair Lapid on Israel’s support for operations in Iran. Also, Barbara Leaf, former US ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, and retired US general Paul Eaton discuss what challenges lie ahead.
Azizi said that a reasonable remnant of the current regime that reconciles with the US may be willing to negotiate, and perhaps establish diplomatic relations, with Washington, perhaps even loosening the rules regarding the hijab for women.
But all that “falls far short of what many Iranians, including myself, are fighting for — what thousands have just died for,” he wrote.
The Middle East may have to wait months, maybe years for the type of Iran it inherits after the conflict is over.
The fate of its troubled people, thousands of whom have recently been killed for demanding basic rights, hangs in the balance.
