By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Journalist
The World Bank said that the Philippines is approaching the gross national income (GNI) per capita threshold which will lead to a reclassification of its category.fication as an upper-middle-income country (UMIC).
“The Philippines is expected to approach the upper middle income threshold based on current per capita GNI trends,” the World Bank said in an email late Tuesday after the approval of the $800-million loan for the Philippines.
The bank approved the Philippines Growth and Jobs Development Policy Loan worth 800 million dollars last week, which will help the country strengthen its economy. fiscal resilience, attract high-quality private investment, and develop its workforce.
“This support comes as the Philippines’ GNI per capita is close to the threshold of middle-income countries, after the combined GDP growth since 2010 has seen the economy double every 13.5 years,” the World Bank said in an updated statement on March 17.
“However, the country today is facing domestic and external shocks that underline the importance of ongoing fiscal and structural reforms in order to foster more robust job growth, as well as reduce the risk of shocks,” it added.
Last year, the World Bank classifirecognized the Philippines as a middle-income country after it exceeded the threshold for UMIC status by $26. GNI per capita was $4,470, while the GNI per capita requirement for the UMIC categoryfiaccommodation was $4,496-$13,935.
The bank is scheduled to release its revised annual estimates and GNI per capita index in July.
Earlier this year, the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) said the Philippines is still on track to achieve UMIC status this year, despite posting a weaker-than-expected 4.4% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025.
DEPDev released its test before the latest round of fiwar broke out in the Persian Gulf. Asked for comment on Tuesday, Economic Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said: “The updated data in the July 1 WB publication includes the GNI per capita in 2025. The ongoing crisis in the Middle East will not affect the 2025 numbers.”
Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development Director Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes told BusinessWorld that “slow growth from last year” makes it “unlikely” that the Philippines will cross the border this year.
He also cited “inflation, which could reduce growth” and “inflation … if this war continues” as risks to UMIC status.
He said that it is possible that the World Bank is reducing the limit, “but it is not something that I would consider as a guarantee.”
Last year, the World Bank lowered the per capita GNI requirement for UMIC to $4,496-$13,935 from between $4,516 and $14,005 in 2024.
China Economist Domini S. Velasquez said that “the decline of weeds, accompanied by inflation, may be delayed or reversed.” advance to UMIC status.”
“High inflation does two things: it reduces real purchasing power (which directly hurts households), and it can weaken the currency, which lowers GNI per capita in US dollars – the most important metric in the UMIC classi.fication,” he said of Viber.
However, he said the focus should not be on the UMIC label itself but on “improving lives through stable jobs, stable wages, and better resilience.”
“While we may be approaching the World Bank’s upper limit for middle income, the key is to maintain it – not just reach it,” he added.
