Trump delayed the Beijing meeting. China wonders if it will ever come to the negotiating table
On the seventh floor of the grand Quan Ju De restaurant in Beijing, a small museum honors the “roast duck diplomacy” the past.
The faded black-and-white footage shows a smiling US president Richard Nixon and secretary of state Henry Kissinger dining with the Chinese leadership, including Premier Zhou Enlai, in 1972, a meeting that led to the normalization of relations between the Cold War rivals.
It serves as a reminder to modern diners that when American and Chinese presidents put their heads together over a meal, they can change the world.
Today, the question echoing in Beijing’s diplomatic and political circles is whether the current US leader, Donald Trump, will appear at the table.
Distracted by the self-inflicted war on Iran and facing mounting domestic pressure, Trump has pushed the China heavy file to the side of his plate to focus on war strategy.
Earlier, the White House said the visit to China would begin on March 31. And while Trump told American media on Monday that the delay could last “a month or more,” the uncertainty is palpable.
China’s Foreign Ministry remained tight-lipped this week when a spokesman responded to questions about the delay, saying the two sides were still in “communication” about the timing of a summit with President Xi Jinping.
A pattern of uncertainty
Economic observers in Beijing say it is impossible to predict when the visit will take place.
“No one knows,” said Xiang Songzuo, a prominent economist and professor at Renmin University’s School of Finance. “We all know that President Trump always changes his decisions. Tomorrow, maybe, he will make a new one.”
Chinese officials say they are considering US President Donald Trump’s request to reschedule his trip to China because of the Middle East war, a move Trump says is not the reason Beijing refused to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Zichen Wang, deputy secretary general at the Center for China and Globalization, agrees that the moon is a lifetime in the current political climate.
“Who knows what will happen in four weeks?” he told CBC News. “The uncertainty is huge.”
There is, however, a silver lining for Beijing.
By blaming the delay in his interventions on China’s intransigence, Trump has unwittingly lowered the temperature between the country’s rivals.
“Beijing can breathe because it is not targeting China,” Wang said. “It also buys both sides time. The Americans, in particular, have not done enough to make a conference of this magnitude a success.”
High stakes and legal hurdles
The gap in preparations was evident this week in Paris, where senior officials met to lay the groundwork. Reports they suggested that Chinese frustration was high because of uncertainty about it what Trump wanted come out of the top.
The stakes couldn’t be higher.
By 2024, US-China trade relations peak $650 billion US.
But stability vanished in March 2025, when Trump declared a national emergency, slapping tariffs of up to 145 percent on Chinese goods. China retaliated with 34 percent tariffs and restrictions on key minerals, a move that rattled US automakers and sent markets around the world reeling.
With Chinese domestic consumption slowing and continued weakness in the country’s housing market fueling economic uncertainty, a new trade deal that creates opportunities for China’s exports is seen as a top priority for the government.
Consumer goods are piling up in warehouses in China with rising transportation costs adding a layer of complications to trade with the Middle East. But others see a greater opportunity for China to step in when the bombing ends and reconstruction begins.
The US-China interim trade deal will expire in November, making the Beijing summit the only real hope for economic forecasting.
However, if Trump procrastinates for a long time in the conference, his power could be reduced.
The US Supreme Court recently ruled that his “national security” tax – imposed through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – is illegal.
“The Supreme Court’s decision is a great victory for Chinese traders,” Xiang said.
While the White House is already trying to get rid of those costs through a new investigation by the US Trade Representative into Chinese “overproduction” and labor practices, China wants those costs to end before Xi and Trump meet.
The shadow of war
There is a long list of issues that will be discussed between these two leaders if they finally meet.
Semiconductors, precious minerals, aluminum, steel, soybeans, poultry, beef, commercial aircraft and TikTok sales are ongoing points of disagreement that could be discussed.
Outside of trade, the Iran war remains the last wild card.
For China, it represents a major geopolitical and energy risk.
“When the US builds an underground army, it raises everything to another level,” Wang said. “China imports electricity from other countries in the Middle East. The instability there changes all these discussions.”
The Canadian government, which is trying to reset its relationship with China, is also at great risk with the Trump-Xi summit.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s efforts to diversify trade have had a notable feature a serious threat from the US president: 100 percent tariffs on all Canadian goods if Ottawa makes a comprehensive deal with Beijing.
Although Carney insists that such a deal is not in the cards, the conclusion underscores the dynamics of this era.
For now, a possible table at Quan Ju De is set for two – but the guests of honor are nowhere to be seen.
