Trump’s power, the Democrats’ message and the effect of the shutdown. What to watch on election day 2025

Washington (AP) – Tuesday marks the first day of the nation’s major election as President Donald Trump returns to the White House, and his policies and policies dominate the debate for nearly every race.

The biggest contests are in Virginia and New Jersey in New Jersey, the only state electing governors this year. Trump lost last fall, but voters in each have a history of electing Republicans to statewide office. GOP candidates have rallied around the president, betting that his landslide defeat last year could still pave the way for victory this time, even if the White House party is usually built on seniors.

Strong democratic demonstrations, meanwhile, could have given the party a way back nationally in line with the national – even if the candidates took different paths, from sticking to a moderate line to handing over government spending to improve the lives of voters.

In New York City, the self-described Democratic Democrat who has already been the target of Trump’s criticism could emerge as a national star if elected Mayor. And California voters will decide whether to revive the state house map, as Democrats look to face a push by Trump to restore the DRM’s power balance.

Here’s what’s worth watching:

A reference to Trump

The President did not set foot in Virginia or New Jersey to campaign for the Republican gubernatorial elections of Earse-Sears or Jack ciattarelli, but I both contests will be viewed as Trump’s referendum so far.

Last year, the amount of tax money was shaking the economy of the world budget, threatened its hospitals “in the health of millions, imposed major cuts in city workers and sent the national guard to many American cities.

The president raised Ciattarelli in the entire race for governor of New Jersey, but held tele-town halls in his place, including a reality night. Trump also made an election night Eve Tele-Town Hall for Virginia Republican who was chosen by the Republican election, but did not mention Wearle-Sears, speaking more in favor of the Gop General attorney. Earlier in the campaign, Trump remained silent – only Sears allowed wholeheartedly, saying he supported the GOP governor’s nominee although he did not use his name. Earle-Sears was not an aggressive defender of Trump and his policies, as Cattarelli was in New Jersey.

Despite Trump’s distance, the good Republican night will probably be viewed as a political victory for Trump and Her “re-do” policies. A bad night for the GOP gives the Democrats a solid — though perhaps unpopular — start heading into the year’s midterms.

A playbook for a new democracy?

Tuesday offers an examination of two very different philosophies about democracy that are expressed from students: adhere to a moderate line or fully embrace the progress of progress. But it also presents a situation where both, or both, can succeed – to draw conclusions from them forward.

Party candidates for Governor, New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, focused on the economy, public safety and health care, have committed to some of the policies of the Democratic Party.

A growing group of Democratic leaders believe a middle-of-the-road approach holds the key to the party’s revival after the GOP won the White House and both chambers last year. Tuesday could be an important indication that he is right.

Both Sherrill and Spanberger have toned down their support for top priorities, including LGBTQ rights and resistance to Trump’s attacks on American institutions. Spanberger rarely even mentions Trump on the campaign trail.

Both also have middling resumes.

Sherrill spent a decade as a helicopter pilot before entering Congress, while Spanberger is a CIA position manager who spent years working overseas. They have played up their social safety nets as a direct response to the GOP’s attack on Democrats being soft on crime.

Above all, Democrats are focused on rising costs such as grocery, energy and health care, which Trump is assigned to control.

New star for Democrats (and Republicans) in New York City

That approach is in stark contrast to the New York City Mayoral Race, where Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Muslim legislator who identifies as a very democratic socialist and radical reformer to address economic inequality, is emerging.

His bold and inspiring approach drew thousands of volunteers to New York and brought him the popularity of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. It also brought back some business leaders and voices in the Jewish community, who otherwise support Democrats but have contradicted some of Mamdani’s past statements about accumulating wealth with Israel.

Mamdani is locked in a caustic race against incumbent Gov. Andrew, who is running as a representative after losing the Democratic primary in Mamdani. Republican Curtis Sliwa is seeking a major upset.

And while many continued to advance, some Republicans in Washington also quietly celebrated Mamdani’s victory. Republican campaign committees have already launched attack ads against more than a dozen house-threatening ads in New York and New Jersey arming Mamdani and his far-flung politics.

Trump approves of Cuomo, posting online Monday evening:

That’s after Trump’s almost daily cuts. GOP operatives also have the opportunity to use it to attack many other Democrats in this year’s election — just as they have done with progressives like Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.

The closing effect

Election day comes amid a federal government shutdown that has already closed for more than a month. Both parties in Congress are at odds with each other, and there is no end in sight.

Will It Matter?

Virginia is home to more than 134,000 workers, many of whom are furloughed or forced to work without pay. New Jersey has about 21,000 employees, according to the federal public service agency, out of more than 2 million public employees statewide.

The number is more than enough to turn a close election.

At the same time, millions of people could cut critical food assistance from the food assistance program, or in a snap, give voters another quick way to express their displeasure.

Polls show that Republicans, who control Congress and the White House, receive more criticism than Democrats – although there is much frustration aimed at both parties.

Trump took the unusual step of calling on the Senate to override filibuster rules that require a minimum of legislation to speed up and force the government to reopen — even though his party’s leadership considers that not yet in place.

An examination of Trump’s reorganization

While Trump lost in Virginia and New Jersey last fall, there were major shifts to the right in both states. In New Jersey, Trump’s 16-point loss in 2020 shrunk to less than 6 points in 2024.

Those marches were fueled by Trump’s growing popularity among the Democratic Party’s most conservative candidates: labor union members, black men, black voters and minorities. Democrats are most vulnerable in New Jersey, which has the largest percentage of working-class families in the state.

If those pro-trump plans continue this week, Democrats could be in trouble.

But Trump is not the poll, of course. And the Trump Coalition – especially the lower voters – have not been shown in the same numbers in the years that the President did not sin.

The Democrats have a decent hope given that Trump did not campaign aggressively in any state, a movement driven by the weak feelings of the President and the concerns of the Republicans’ about Virginia.

At the same time, the biggest star in Democratic Politics, the former President Barack Obama, is frequent voters in New Jersey and Virginia over the weekend.

Pennsylvania and California and the future of the election

Pennsylvania voters will decide whether the state’s three top Democrat-backed Justices will serve another term.

The outcome could shape seven Supreme Court swing states, and could have implications for key cases involving redistricting in the 2028 midterm elections.

Incembunts are not listed for group involvement. A bavot simply asks voters to vote yes – or no. But spending on the race is likely to exceed $15 million, which shows how important it is to Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania and beyond.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newlom, who is often reported as a 2028 presidential hopeful, is leading the money to recover the DMERICSIVAAL maps to give the democrats for the next election.

The push is the centerpiece of the Democratic effort to fight new Republican maps in Texas and other places that were drawn to boost the GOP’s chances in next year’s Copress fight for control of Congress. In order for the new maps to count in 2026, however, voters will have to approve an informed yes-or-no question known as Proposition 50.