Big Tech says Superintelligent AI is on the horizon. A common scholar would disagree
Top leaders in AI have high expectations for the future of artificial intelligence.
“By 2026 or 2027, we will have AI systems that are better than humans at almost everything,” Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said earlier this year at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Elon Musk submitted last year that we will have AI systems that are more intelligent than any single person by the end of this year, and he will be “100%” developed “before the end of Trump’s presidency.
SuperIntalligence or AGI is a future AI system that can create a human intelligence on all Fronts, and it has become the North Star of the technology sector. For example, Meta, has a whole section and a lot of dollar browser – a spree dedicated to building superintelligence, and Mark Zuckerberg says “it is visible.”
While many of the AI leaders with the biggest microphone say that the survival of artificial intelligence is close, a new study paints a different picture of the sensitivity of the experts.
According to the predictive research institute “Longitudinal Ai Panel Expert”, the timeline of superintelligent AI will be much slower than promised. It is led by experts with many guidelines such as the Federal Reserve board of Chicago Economist Ezra Karger, the facts that the leaders will be made, and other participants, and other participants, and other participants will be inclined to the continuation of AI capabilities and its technological impact. “
Experts have given tech leaders a timeline of rapid development with only a 23% chance of actually happening.
The rapid development described in the study is one where “It is not writing novels for Pulitzer Prizes, making long days in days and weeks, coming up with any software engineer, and developing a new treatment for cancer.” So, with a good look at how Silico Valley defines artificial superintelligence.
“Major changes in major systems take longer than 4-5 years. I think so [in] Most of these domains, even the rapid development in AIS will not translate easily into the development of a certain time due to unforeseen obstacles, “professional consultation was written easily on this subject.”
One expert thought that bottlenecks would intervene before the impact of AI could be calculated at the predicted level.
“The power of its impact may be reduced by bottlenecks in areas where AI is not overcome,” the expert wrote. “There may be thousands (millions) of potential bottles in the economy that will be able to escape just as some processes are being blocked by orders of magnitude.”
Another advance is the power of AI models
Not all technology leaders share the same, timeless belief in the future of superintelligence, however. Microsoft’s Ai Chief, Mustafa Suleyman, is pretty much a non-believer, going so far as to call the pursuit of Superintelligence “absurd.” Another Tech Titan, Sales Force CEO Marc Benioff, recently referred to the hype surrounding artificial intelligence as an example of “hypnosis.”
Meanwhile, some tech experts who believe superintelligence isn’t that close aren’t too excited about the possibility. In October, a statement calling for the development of Superintelligence until certain conditions are met was signed by more than 100,000 people, as well as computer scientists Geoffrey Hinton and Joshua Bengio, both considered “the masters of AI.”
Even though many experts in the research argue that AI will evolve at lightning speed to reach Superintelligence by the end of the decade, the average expert still believes in its evolutionary potential.
According to the study, experts predict that AI will have a major impact by 2040, ranking it as the “technology of the century” at Aquity. And by 2030, experts believe that AI will provide daily companionship for 15 percent of adults and assist in 18 percent of working hours in the US
Some experts included in the study are described by the researchers as “superforecasters.” But AI is a tricky thing to predict, even for some so-called superforvecasters, as it turns out.
A previous study of AI experts and superforsecasters, conducted by the Center for Forecasting Research, found that both groups were underpowered by AI. For example, experts think in 2022 that AI will receive a gold medal in the International Mathematical Olympiad in 2030, and the highest say 2035. But the AI system was developed by Google.
