THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY could not return to growth of around 6% in 2027 if public and private investment recovers, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Philippines Country Director Andrew Jeffries.
“I think (the drivers are) kind of a small thing, but the return to high investment, public and private, I think it would be, for me, the main driver,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the Jan. 23 event.
Last December, ADB lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 5% in 2025, from 5.6% previously. For 2026, ADB has reduced its GDP forecast to 5.3% from 5.7%.
This comes after corruption caused the government to freeze spending, household consumption, investor confidence and economic activity last year.
The ADB will release its revised economic outlook in April, which will include a growth forecast for 2027.
Mr. Jeffries warned that the budget cuts of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) this year, could cause a “significant decrease” in funded projects in the area.
“I think the main variable in 2026 was how quickly the public investment comes back? We were thinking maybe two quarters, so it will start to revive,” he said.
In a meeting with Public Works Secretary Vivencio “Vince” B. Dizon in December, Mr.
“What we’ve heard is that they’re trying to make sure that important projects don’t get stuck and keep moving forward quickly. I think it’s a double whammy,” he said. “It corrects the problem while other activities that were not a problem continue.”
Mr. Dizon earlier said that the DPWH aims to increase spending while ensuring that funds are used wisely and focus on prioritizing “fundamentals” such as the maintenance of roads and bridges and unfinished projects. The agency’s revenue target is set at between P200 billion and P250 billion for the first quarter, he added.
Meanwhile, Mr. Jeffries said the Philippines must increase the share of exports in the economy to support long-term growth, diversify its base, and increase resilience.
“It is not an overnight thing. It will be a combination of policies and attracting investment and improving the business environment and all those things together,” said Mr. Jeffries. “But the neighbors have done it and the Philippines can do that.”
He noted that the Philippines is immune to external shocks, especially because exports remain a small part of the economy.
“I think it is still very important that over time that (exports) grow in the Philippines,” he said.
However, Mr. Jeffries added that the export industry’s ambitions are facing operational challenges.
“Connecting here automatically is more expensive and more challenging than some neighbors,” he said.
CHANGES ARE NEEDED
The Federation of Filipino Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Inc. (FFCCCII) said the National Government mustblame changes to improve self-esteem as the economy may remain stagnant this year.
In a statement, FFCCII President Victor R. Lim said the administration should promote the adoption of technology and food security efforts in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, enforce anti-corruption measures, improve protection and ease of doing business for local and foreign investors, and build world-class infrastructure to revive tourism.
It also urged the government to mobilize investment in education, skills and universal health care, develop ports, infrastructure and broadband to increase market connectivity, and promote sustainable and technological change in the country.
On the other hand, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that the economy’s return to the 6% growth path is possible because of low results.
“Another factor: The increase in government funding to accelerate the completion of various projects/programs, especially in the months before the 2028 presidential election,” he said in a Viber message on Monday. – Aubrey Rose A. Inosante with Katherine K. Chan
