Analysis – New Copper seeks drivers from us, India as Shina Juggernaut slows down

By Pratima Desai

LONDON (Reuters) – Copper consumption in the United States and India is set to rise in China’s reputation over the next decade as demand grows in the world’s largest consumer of the tangible metal.

Beijing’s Industrial and Infrastructure expansion is helping to fend off a rally that has seen copper prices rise to more than $10,000 a metric ton from $1,500 25 years ago.

But while China is forecast to remain the largest market for copper in the next decade and beyond, analysts expect some demand and price pressures to come into play.

Changing regional policies, infrastructure cycles and geopolitical shifts may mean that producers, buyers, sellers and investors need to adapt to a market with many different drivers.

“China will reduce its copper consumption and copper consumption and stockpiling

The impact remains to be seen, but it is going through the US and other countries to promote local production and it means the export machine and the production work is expected to reduce and the demand for this refined copper, which is estimated at 15 million tons this year.

Meanwhile, data centers need to support AI technology and advances in Power Grid Infrastructure mean growth in demand for copper outside of China will be a driving force for prices.

“China has built its infrastructure, including its power distribution grid. Its work will be drifted at a lower level of matching (” said the price, who predicts the Chinese demand will be lower in 2031 than in 2026.

The price predicts that China will account for 52% of the consumption of 32% of the Global Crustity of copper, about 27 million tons, in 2031 compared to 57% in the year 2026.

And he expects us to demand 2.2 million tons in the year 2031, which is almost 50% from 2026, predicts India, which predicts the emergence of more than 30 million.

‘Increasing Westernization’

Analysts also expect that US President Donald Trump’s Investment of 50% in copper pipes and wiring to help promote local production.

In China, the possible consequences are the loss of a large market for its copper pipe exports. Trade Data Monitor ranks the US as the fourth largest market for the product.

Last year, it imported 14.4 million tons of Props directly from China and in the first seven months of this year, TDM data shows the loss of the main market of Beijing.

“The release of China’s manufactured goods, especially exports, is likely to slow down the estimated time as a return job by Western countries,” said Duncan Hobbs, director of research services for Concord.

Those exports will include copper wire used for power grid infrastructure. In Your Last Network – Infrastructure Review of the Past Decades, the US Department of Energy found 70% of lines are more than 25 years old.

At the same time, India is expanding its transmission infrastructure to support its goal of 500 gw of fossil fuel-based capacity by 2030.

And in Asia, outside of China, the Benchmark consultancy expects that Copper wants to exceed 25% to more than 92 million tons by 2030.

With electricity infrastructure including grids and generations, data centers and telecoms, BMI expects demand to increase by 35% to 2.2 tons.

BMI forecasts for China are 4% and 11% respectively.

Modern Infrastructure

The development of the grid in the West means that it is modern. This will be slow and steady and not as strong copper as building from scratch, as China has been doing.

Robert Edward, chief analyst at Metals Consultancy CRU has been expecting China’s influence on the copper market to heal for several years. But this has not been a done deal due to Chinese investment in electric vehicles, renewables and its power grid.

CRU expects China’s consumption of Popper minerals to increase to 31.36 million tons in 2030, up 59% from 27.62 million tons this year.

“Look for the potential for growth in China to be limited. You should see more growth globally,” Edwards said.

(Reporting by Pratima Desai; Editing by Veronica Brown and Alexander Smith)