Of the many proxy battlefields between Iran and the United States in the Middle East, Iraq is one of the most neglected, at least outside the region.
But the US reaction to the political re-emergence of former Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki – who will run for office again – is a sharp reminder of Iraq’s drift between the two.
The appointment of the 75-year-old politician has become a lightning rod as the US steps up efforts to reduce Iranian influence in Iraq.
“The last time Maliki was in power, the country fell into poverty and chaos,” US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social last month, after the Coordination Group (CF), the largest Shia group in the Iraqi Parliament, nominated al-Maliki.
“Because of his contradictory policies and views, if elected, the United States of America will no longer be able to help Iraq,” Trump wrote. “And, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom.”
Al-Maliki responded with his own, rejecting what he called “blatant American interference” in Iraq’s internal affairs.
Iran’s foreign minister called the first round of informal talks with US officials on Iran’s nuclear program a ‘good start.’ But neighboring countries continue to worry about a US military strike that could spark a regional war.
Trump has been threatening military action against Iran since early January – ordering US naval forces to the region – initially over the killing of protesters in massive anti-government protests. He has since moved on to Iran’s nuclear power, its ballistic missiles and its support for regional militaries.
In appointing Malachi as prime minister, the Co-ordination Framework praised his “political and administrative experience.”
Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at the UK’s Chatham House, says the re-emergence of al-Maliki as a contender reflects Iran’s enduring influence in Iraq.
“Since leaving office, al-Maliki has maintained close ties with Iran,” Mansour wrote in a recent Chatham House op-ed. “Among his actions as prime minister in 2014 was the official establishment of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which is a coalition of armed groups.”
Critics say a door has been opened that has allowed militias or non-state actors to enter and influence Iraqi politics.
Iranian support for proxies
Some of those groups are already in Washington’s crosshairs — especially now, as it has expanded its list of demands for Iran negotiations beyond the nuclear file to include an end to military support across the Middle East.
“Some of these soldiers [now have political arms and] participate in the elections,” said Iraqi Kurdish politician Hoshyar Zebari, former Iraqi foreign minister, finance minister and deputy prime minister, in an interview with CBC News at his home in Pirman, northern Iraq.
“Now, in the new Iraqi Parliament they have more than 70 seats, maybe more,” he said.
“They’re under a lot of pressure, OK? And the United States has made it clear that it will not stand against any Iraqi government that includes certain members of those wanted militias on the State Department’s terrorist list or on the Treasury’s sanctions list.”
Zebari says that some Shia militias have started a campaign to search for people who would kill themselves with bombs to protect Iran in the event of a US attack.
The most powerful Shia group in Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah (Party of God), has received funding and training from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps. Its political wing, Harakut Hoquq, won six seats in the November parliamentary elections.
In the power-sharing arrangement negotiated after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Iraqi presidency goes to a Kurd, the prime minister to a Shia and the speaker to a Sunni.
Kurdish divisions over the choice of president have delayed the initial government-building process, while Washington’s opposition to the CF’s nomination of al-Maliki as prime minister complicates the picture.
Al-Maliki linked to ‘painful past’
There is also a lot of internal resistance.
“Overall, al-Maliki is associated with a very painful past,” said Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, founder of the Middle East Research Institute, based in Erbil, northern Iraq.
Names mentioned as possible alternatives to al-Malaki within the Coordination Framework include current Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani and intelligence chief Hamid al-Shatri.
Ala’Aldeen says that even the Shias themselves are divided over al-Maliki.
He served two terms as prime minister between 2006 and 2014. After initially welcoming him, the Americans pushed for his removal after he was accused of rampant corruption and fueling sectarian divisions in Iraq, paving the way for the Islamic State, or ISIS.
“His tenure as Prime Minister led to the departure of the Americans, led to the emergence of ISIS, led to the rift between the Kurds and almost to confrontation,” said Ala’Aldeen. “Iraq was never the same after him.”
Now, focused on recovering from decades of conflict and hardship, many Iraqis fear any conflict between the US and Iran will inevitably spill over the border into Iraq.
“What makes Iraq fit to be Iran’s battlefield?” asked Sabiha Ismail, a 70-year-old school principal originally from the Baghdad area and now working in Erbil.
“We want Iraqi leaders to be leaders,” he said. “We don’t want them to be Iran’s lawyers.”
The element of oil
Many Iraqis are also outraged by what they see as US bullying. But Trump has a powerful persuasive tool at his disposal.
Since the US invasion in 2003, Iraq’s oil revenues go through the US Federal Reserve, and the Baghdad government relies on them to pay, among other things, the salaries of public servants.
Iraqi Kurds, usually experts in the art of realpolitik, walk their fine line.
“It is an internal matter for the Shias who they appoint as the new prime minister of Iraq,” Niyaz Barzani, foreign affairs adviser to the president of Iraq’s Kurdish region, said in an interview.
But “in our opinion it is very important that Iraq continues to strengthen its relations with the United States, economically, politically. And because the Americans, the US government, can help the Iraqi government in many different fields.”
Even in the best of times Iraq has been known to take months to form a government. Former foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari says this will remain.
“It is not a done deal,” said Zebari. “It will be a complex, long-term process.”
The question is whether that process will bring Iraqis closer together or leave them more divided than before.
