After experiencing one of the wettest holiday seasons on record, reeling California hit a milestone this week – experiencing unusually dry conditions for the first time in 25 years.
The data, collected by the US Drought Monitor, is a welcome piece of news for residents of the Golden State, which in the last 15 years alone has experienced the worst drought on record, the worst wildfire seasons on record and the most destructive wildfires ever.
Right now, the wildfire danger across California is “as close to zero as it’s ever been,” and there’s almost no need to worry about the state’s year-round water supply, said UC climate scientist Daniel Swain. Currently, 14 of the state’s 17 largest water supply lakes are at 70% capacity or higher, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
California’s last drought lasted more than 1,300 days, from February 2020 to October 2023, during which time only 0.7 percent of the state remained unusually dry due to a series of winter storms that showered the Golden State with rain.
Before that, California was in a record drought cycle from December 2011 to September 2019.
But the last time 0% of California’s map had any degree of abnormally dry or drought conditions was since December 2000. In recent weeks, a series of powerful winter storms and windstorms have lashed California, dumping heavy rain that has soaked the soil, filled lakes and left much of the state unusually wet during this time.
“This is a less severe winter than last year and there are more drought years, so it’s OK to take a breath and admit that, right now, things are going well,” Swain said. However, he noted that “as we move forward, we expect to face more and more extremism [weather] sweets.”
Although it may seem counterintuitive, climate change is predicted to lead to both more intense droughts and more intense episodes of rainfall. This is because warm air draws more moisture from the soil and plants, deepening the drought. At the same time, the warm air holds more water vapor, which is then released in a few, very strong storms.
Scientists named the phenomenon – the atmospheric sponge effect – which Swain said “hopefully is an exciting picture that explains why as the climate warms we may see a wider swing between very wet and very dry conditions.”
A prime example of this effect is the weather pattern before the devastating Palisades and Eaton fires.
In 2022 and 2023, California had its wettest winter. Mammoth Mountain, for example, set a record for snowfall in the 2022-23 season.
However, Southern California experienced one of the driest periods on record in the fall and winter of 2024, which fueled the subsequent devastation of the January 2025 firestorm.
“We didn’t even have to be in a significant multi-year drought to have that series of really wet and dry conditions lead us to an area where fire danger was catastrophic,” Swain said.
A study published after the fire examines how this sequence of very wet to very dry weather is dangerous for wildfires in Southern California because heavy rain leads to high growth of grass and brush, which becomes more fuel during periods of extreme dryness.
Fortunately, California should not be at risk of water supplies and wildfire danger for the next few months, but in the long run, residents should expect to see more of this snow weather, Swain said.
