Listen to this article
Average 4 minutes
The audio version of this article was created by AI-based technology. It can be mispronounced. We are working with our partners to continuously review and improve the results.
A coalition of countries supporting Ukraine, including Canada, is facing a critical juncture as it meets in Paris this week to chart a credible path toward a ceasefire and possible reconstruction.
Prime Minister Mark Carney will attend a gathering of more than 30 leaders, where the important issue of post-war security guarantees will be discussed. Those bilateral guarantees are intended to prevent Russia from blowing off steam and resuming its push to take over all of its Eastern European neighbors in the next few years.
The leaders will meet on Tuesday at the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron. However, as the meeting continues, there will be a meeting of defense leaders from allied countries on Monday.
That comes after a meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had with the coalition’s 18 national security advisers in Kyiv over the weekend.
Canada’s former NATO ambassador and current defense policy advisor to the prime minister, David Angell, participated in discussions where the issue of collective security assurances and how they play into the overall peace effort. led by the US and President Donald Trump was among the top items on the agenda.
Zelenskyy told reporters afterward that he expected security guarantees to be finalized at the meeting in Paris.
“In these meetings, there will also be meetings with President Trump’s team,” said the president of Ukraine. “These meetings will also be held in Paris. It will last a day, or maybe two – we will see how things develop.”
Zelenskyy has repeatedly emphasized the importance of making security guarantees strong and credible in the face of Russia’s continued aggression.
“Russia has not shown any real willingness to pursue peace,” he said in a statement. “Instead, it continues its aggressive, violent, and demoralizing war, using negotiations as a tactic to buy time. It uses provocation and deception to disrupt progress in the peace process.”
Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor and national security expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut, said it is surprising how Ukraine has turned European reluctance and reluctance into a commitment of military support.
“I think the ‘coalition of the willing’ is a great successss of Ukraine’s foreign policy since the start of the war,” Schmidt said, referring to a group of 35 countries friendly to Ukraine that includes Canada.
“It will certainly give Zelenskyy a chancethe kind of security guarantee that would be meaningful in the absence of NATO membership.”
The fact that the Ukrainian government appears to be convincing European leaders that Russia is an “immediate threat” to them “is a success because the truth is that we forget that back in 2022 and 2023, Europe was against this definition of war,” Schmidt said.
A US intelligence investigation found Ukraine innocent of what Russia says was a drone strike on Vladimir Putin’s compound. Both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave year-end news conferences amid ongoing talks on a peace deal that have been plagued by key unresolved issues.
Strong security guarantees from Europe and Canada will allow Ukraine to abandon its long-held plan to join NATO.
Trump has said separately that he is offering Ukraine “strong security guarantees” as part of a peace framework to end the war with Russia. He suggested 15 years for such an agreement, which would have to be approved by Congress.
Zelenskyy, however, is aiming for the long term.
Schmidt said he doubts everything that comes out of the White House in Ukraine because the position of the United States has been changing since Trump returned to power.
“We’ve seen the Trump administration backtrack very quickly over the past few months on its position on the war in Ukraine,” Schmidt said.
A lot of time and effort is being spent on laying the groundwork for the Ukrainian side of potential peace talks. The question of how much Russia is willing to compromise is unclear.
While the Kremlin has signaled its willingness to use the US-led peace framework as a “foundation” for future negotiations, it continues to insist on terms that will require significant Ukrainian approval, including giving up land in the eastern part of the country.
Russia has also demanded a significant reduction in the size of the Ukrainian military as a “token of power” and opposes any Western security guarantees that include the presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.
