Chances of Trump Taking Greenland and the Panama Canal Rise in Prediction Markets

President Donald Trump kidnapped Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro over the weekend and said the United States was about to take control of the country and take over its oil. That has caused the whole world to look around in panic to see where Trump might attack next. If you’re in Greenland or Panama, it’s reasonable to worry. And the betting markets reflect that concern, as the odds of an attack have increased in recent days.

The question of whether Trump will “bring back the Panama Canal” before the end of the president’s term in January 2029 is currently at 36% in Kalshi. That’s up from 28.8% on Jan. 2, the day before Maduro’s capture. The US previously had control over the Panama Canal when it was built over a century ago, although that control was revoked in the 1970s.

Trump has said he wants to restore the Panama Canal, insisting it is the rightful territory of the United States and citing Chinese interest in the region as his reason for asserting American dominance in the area.

But it’s not just Panama. As CNBC notes, the odds of the US taking control of “any part of Greenland” by the end of Trump’s term stood at 38% on Tuesday in Kalshi, up from 30% on Jan. 2, although down from 46.6% last Jan. 4, the day after Maduro was captured.

Trump is determined to conquer Greenland, an area of ​​Denmark that the country has no interest in relinquishing control, according to its leaders. The White House reiterated on Tuesday in a statement to Reuters that it was discussing ways to “find” Greenland.

“President Trump has made it known that securing Greenland is a top US national security priority, and it is important to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region,” the White House told Reuters. “The president and his team are discussing a number of options to pursue this important foreign policy objective, and of course, using the US military is always an option for the commander-in-chief.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Monday that Trump’s threats to take over Greenland are creating unacceptable pressure, but he thinks the president means it. Frederiksen warned that any attack on Greenland would be the end of the NATO alliance.

“If the United States would choose to attack another NATO country, everything would be over,” he told Danish reporters, according to the New York Times version. “The international community as we know it, the democratic rules of the game, NATO, the most powerful defense alliance in the world – all of that can collapse if one NATO country chooses to attack another.”

The Wall Street Journal reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers behind closed doors Monday that Trump’s main goal is to buy Greenland and that the threatened attack was a pressure tactic. But Democratic lawmakers also noted that defense officials had vowed to back down and say there were no plans for regime change in Venezuela before Trump impeached Maduro.

Trump has also made threats against Canada, which has been a staunch US ally. The president’s hatred of Canada, including high taxes, has created an anti-American spirit in the country that has not been heard in modern times. And it’s hitting American businesses hard, as travel to the US plummets and alcohol exports are crippled. US wine exports to Canada fell 91% in the three months from March to July, according to Wine Enthusiast. And Jim Beam halted production at its main facility in Kentucky for a year due to declining sales. Canadian drinkers are turning to their homegrown whiskeys as they boycott US bourbon.

If you’re thinking of betting that Trump will invade Greenland or Panama or any other country, it’s probably a good idea to read the script. Some people are unhappy with Polymarket after bets did not pay off on the “attack” on Venezuela, according to Marketwatch.

“This market refers to US military operations aimed at establishing control,” the company explained. “President Trump’s statement that they will ‘manage’ Venezuela while referring to ongoing negotiations with the Venezuelan government does not mean that they are qualified for a grab-and-go mission to arrest Maduro as an attack.”

There is also the possibility that you are betting on people who have a lot of inside information you don’t have it. That seems to have been the case just before Maduro’s capture, as someone turned a $30,000 bet into what turned out to be $400,000. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently said that he is still making a decision on whether insider trading in the prediction markets is good or bad.

“If you’re setting it up as a commodity trading class and you want to make sure you’re maintaining the integrity of the market, I would say, no, you shouldn’t have insider trading,” Armstrong said. “But if you’re actually preparing a news source and what’s really going to happen in the world, you want 100% insider trading because that’s where you get the real signal.”

Even if you are right about Trump’s attacks on this country or that country, there are many loopholes that could see you lose money or possibly be targeted by insider trading. And if you’re American, there’s probably some poetic justice in the praise. Because, like it or not, the American people are the ones who put this mess of government in place again. And he is determined to expand the area, regardless of what the rest of the world says about it.