Climate Change Lowers List of Active Winter Olympic Hosts

There are currently 93 cities in the world that have the necessary infrastructure to host the Winter Olympics and Paralympics. But as the planet continues to warm, that pool of options is rapidly shrinking. By 2050, only four cities will be able to support the Olympics without the help of artificial snow, according to a study published this week.

“Hockey, figure skating, curling, etc., it’s all indoors; you can do that in Miami if you want,” Daniel Scott, a professor of geography and environmental management at the University of Waterloo and one of the study’s authors, told the Observer. “Really the snow sports we’re talking about are in jeopardy—how do you keep those as part of the Winter Games?”

This question is on the agenda of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), which is preparing to start the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics in Italy next month in 2026. The governing body is weighing a range of options to deal with rising temperatures, from combining the Olympic and Paralympic games to holding them in different cities, or even changing their usual start dates to use the coldest months of the year.

“Our desire is to protect the Olympic Winter Games and the popular winter sports; to reduce the impact on the environment; and to help protect the winter economy that so many people depend on,” an IOC spokesperson told the Observer via email.

It’s not just the IOC that is worried about winter warming. A 2022 survey of professional and Olympic winter athletes and coaches from 20 countries found that 90 percent were concerned about the impact of climate change on their sport. Those impacts could include serious safety risks: eight years earlier, during the Sochi Winter Games, a high rate of crashes and injuries among snow sports athletes was linked to warm temperatures and poor quality snow.

The effects of global warming will get worse as the years go by. Of the 93 past and potential hosts of the Winter Olympics—traditionally held in February—between 45 and 55 are expected to have climate reliability in the 2050s, with that number dropping to between 30 and 54 in the 2080s, according to the study.

The Winter Paralympics, held the month after the Olympics, face an even greater challenge. Only 17 to 31 cities will be able to host the Games by mid-century, with four to 31 cities remaining in operation three decades later. “How do you pull off the Paralympics in March?” Scott said.

How can the Olympics adapt to rising temperatures?

Another proposal by Scott and his co-authors is to combine the Olympics and Paralympics so that both games are held in February. The solution could increase the visibility of the Paralympics—but, on the other hand, could risk overshadowing it. Planning to combine the two games, too, can be a major undertaking for the host city.

Another possibility is to end the “One Bid, One City” partnership, established in 2001, which required cities to host the Olympics and Paralympics in the same locations. Instead, games can be played in different places at the same time. But doing so would end the successful partnership that has helped the IOC and the International Paralympic Committee (IPC) support each other and their athletes for the past 25 years.

The most promising solution, Scott said, would be to move both games back two to three weeks. While that would slightly reduce the number of climate-reliable Olympic hosts, it would greatly expand the options for the Paralympics, adding 14 more climate-reliable cities by the 2080s. The IOC is “very happy to get that new analysis, because that was something they were thinking about,” Scott said.

The future of the ice itself is another important concern. Artificial snow will play an increasingly central role in future Winter Games—and it already does today. Currently, only seven of the 93 potential host venues can host the Olympic Games without artificial ice, with only five able to do so at the Paralympics. That number is expected to drop further as emissions continue to rise.

Artificial snow is nothing new, Scott noted. “I think some people forget that ice skating has been part of the Olympics since Lake Placid, 40 years ago,” he said. So, it’s not a question of, ‘Can you do without it?’ Say, ‘How do you make it as sustainable as possible?’”

Although artificial ice has drawn criticism for its power as well water implementation, new systems are more efficient and vary widely by location. “That’s for the IOC to choose,” Scott said. The 2026 Games in Milan and the 2034 Games in Salt Lake City, Utah, for example, will produce six and 16 times more emissions, respectively, than the 2030 Games in the French Alps, which will rely on an almost entirely nuclear and renewable electricity grid.

Rising temperatures won’t just affect the Winter Olympics. The Summer Olympics are already feeling the strain: during the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the marathons were moved to Sapporo to escape the extreme heat. And the 2032 Summer Olympics in Brisbane will be held during the Australian winter instead of summer to take advantage of the cooler weather. “Burn risk is a growing problem,” Scott said.