Cubans are wondering if they can follow Venezuela’s lead as rumors swirl about US negotiations

Cubans, who often sing when their leaders give speeches, were in high spirits Thursday when President Miguel Díaz-Canel addressed the nation on television following rumors that the Cuban government was talking to the Trump administration about ending one-party rule.

US President Donald Trump said on February 1 that negotiations are ongoing. “Cuba is a failing nation. It’s been a long time, but now it doesn’t have Venezuela to support it,” he said. “So we’re talking to people from Cuba, top people in Cuba, to see what’s going on.”

On Thursday, Díaz-Canel simply said that Cuba is “willing to dialogue with the United States, dialogue on any subject, but without pressure or conditions.”

His tone had changed from six days earlier, when he accused Trump of “behaving like Hitler, with a criminal policy of contempt, with the goal of taking over the world.”

Díaz-Canel also promised that there would be an improvement in the island’s catastrophic power shortage in the next few weeks – a claim that raised serious doubts among observers.

Blockages and power outages

Trump’s Jan. 29 order imposed new sanctions on countries that sell oil to Cuba, effectively blocking the supply of fuel that powers the island’s crumbling power grid. Most of Cuba’s oil came from Venezuela, but that source was cut off when the United States seized its president, Nicolás Maduro, and attacked the capital last month.

Cuba’s electricity grid is in dire straits, and daily power outages were commonplace for many Cubans even before the oil embargo.

The country can produce about 30 percent of the oil it needs, but it is heavy and sulphurous, and its use has damaged gas stations that are far past their prime. Attempts to introduce solar power have had limited success due to a lack of batteries.

Eloy Viera, a Cuban-Canadian editor of the Cuban news publication El Toque, expressed skepticism about Díaz-Canel’s promises that the energy situation would improve in the coming weeks.

“My family that lives in Cienfuegos in the center of Cuba has 50 or 60 hours without electricity, then they get service for four to five hours, and then it goes out again for 40 to 50 hours,” he said.

The new energy crisis comes as Cuba experiences unprecedented cold, with freezing temperatures being recorded for the first time on the island.

Oil analysts believe the island has several weeks of fuel left, even as the government has begun blackouts and public transport shutdowns have been reported in many areas.

Mexico had initially replaced supplies that used to come from Venezuela, but the country’s oil company Pemex changed its mind on January 26. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum was forced to deny that Mexico had changed course under pressure from the Trump administration, as widely reported.

Conditions are so bad that Viera said he believes there could be large-scale protests like the one in July 2021, which was severely suppressed by communist authorities.

“And I’m sure the answer will be the use of force, because that’s what they have right now. We could see a situation similar to what we saw in Iran.”

Cuban-Canadian Michael Lima Cuadra of the rights group Democratic Spaces shares concerns that Cuba could descend into violence.

He said the state’s biggest fear is not Washington. “The biggest threats are the Cuban people. They are always afraid that people will take to the streets and demand democracy. Yes, they see the US as a threat. But democratic change is the real fear.”

Possible secret meetings in Mexico

Reports that Alejandro Castro Espín was already in direct contact with the CIA in Mexico caused a lot of excitement this week, but also some skepticism.

Castro Espín is the son of Raúl Castro – brother of Fidel, the former president and the man generally believed to have real power in Cuba – and revolutionary heroine Vilma Espín. He holds the rank of brigadier-general in the Cuban army.

He was also involved in secret negotiations with the Obama administration 12 years ago that led to a temporary thaw in the relationship.

Cubans see Castro Espín as part of an invisible, but highly influential wing of the Communist regime.

“In Cuba,” said Buenos Aires-based Cuban lawyer Alain Espinoza of the rights group Cubalex, “power has always been divided between those who show their faces, like Díaz-Canel and the Council of State, and those who control the Cuban economy behind the curtain, like Alejandro Castro Espín – and behind him big economic concerns, including GAE, which runs the military company, GAE who control all the money and economy of Cuba.”

Espinoza said that he does not believe that the regime as a whole will ever agree to leave the reins of power, but “we cannot rule out that those who control the Cuban economy are willing to negotiate an exit that will allow them to keep some of the wealth they have accumulated, without fear of legal consequences or criminal prosecution.”

The agreement that may emerge from such negotiations would be very similar to the agreement of Delcy Rodríguez, who is now acting as the president of Venezuela, where some parts of the regime turned against others to get better conditions for themselves in Washington.

But many Cubans are skeptical.

Cubans doubt the regime will let go of its grip

Viera noted that Díaz-Canel did not repeat the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cuba a few days ago, which emphasized the “red lines” between Cuba and Washington. Instead, the president said he is ready to discuss “important” things. However, Viera doubted that would include giving up power.

“I think that is the principle that the United States wants to negotiate with them. But they don’t think to negotiate because their survival is at stake right now,” Viera told CBC News.

“They know they have a very short window. They know that in November, the Republican Party will face a new election that could change Congress,” he said.

“They will try to live for six, seven months, trying to reduce all expenses, putting on the shoulders of people all the burden they can carry, because what they want right now is to do what they have been doing for 67 years: to buy time. That was their policy, living day by day.”

Comparison with Venezuela

Some Cuban dissidents and analysts said they did not believe the reports of talks with the CIA in Mexico.

If negotiations do take place, many Cubans worry that the US will simply seek changes in the existing regime, rather than actual regime change.

When Venezuelan leader Maduro was kicked out of a US prison cell, the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, was allowed to take his place, apparently permanently. That result disappointed many Venezuelans, who had hoped the US would demand that the opposition’s victory in the 2024 election be respected, or demand new multi-party elections.

“A fraction of the elite may be pushing back toward some kind of deal with the United States,” said former Cuban diplomat and party member Juan Antonio Blanco, now head of the Madrid-based pro-democracy group Cuba Siglo 21. Blanco suspects the Trump administration has another Rodríguez-style solution in mind for his country.

“I’m sure they’re trying. I mean, that would be a normal thing for the United States to do.”

The LIBERTAD Act lays down the law

But unlike in the case of Venezuela, Blanco said, no US president is free to be independent about democratic change in Cuba. That’s because the steps any such change must follow are already detailed in the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (LIBERTAD) Act of 1996, better known as the Helms-Burton Act.

“It says that if there is a revolutionary government in Cuba – it doesn’t matter if it comes from Mars or from the American invasion or from the Cuban government or part of the government or the opposition that removed the government – any revolutionary government will have to establish civil and political rights immediately.”

The law also stipulates that free elections must be held within 18 months of the transition.

In Venezuela, Trump said elections would “take years,” falsely claiming the country could not hold any. (Venezuela has a proven track record of holding fair elections; the problem has been the socialist government’s unwillingness to honor the results.)

Hope and fear for the future

Cuban dissidents from different political stripes share common concerns about the future: fear of violence and scoring, worry that poor Cubans could become inferior to their country if the rich are deported and, more recently, worry that Washington might seek a compromise solution in Havana that leaves the dictatorship in control.

“I think we all have the same doubts,” said Cuban lawyer Espinoza. “Everyone is not happy that part of the elite of Chavista, which did so much harm to the people of Venezuela, is able to continue to rule with impunity. No one will be happy with this kind of change. [in Cuba].”

Lima Cuadra, from the rights organization Democratic Spaces, said that the events in Venezuela have caused disappointment. “The US solution in Venezuela has been called ‘regime management’ instead of regime change. For the transition to be successful, you have to remove all elements from the old regime, those people in the security of the regime who often create mafias and become an obstacle to democracy.”

“The United States must listen to what the Cuban democracy fighters in the islands are asking for, what the Cubans who have been exiled to the US and other parts of the world are asking for. Free elections must be on the table.”

Lima Cuadra also said that there is no reason for other countries to accept that the future of Cuba is of concern only to Washington.

“Canada also has diplomatic tools that it can use – the same diplomatic tools that Canada is using on Iran, Venezuela, Belarus, like targeted sanctions. And Canada is not doing that. It’s still on the same old policy of peace and do nothing.”