A MAJORITY of Filipinos see China as the biggest external threat to the country, according to a December survey by OCTA Research, as tensions continue between Manila and Beijing over disputed territories in the South China Sea.
About 79% of Filipino adults identified China as the biggest threat to the Philippines, up from 74% in a similar survey conducted in July, OCTA said in a report released Wednesday.
The increase points to a deep and widespread view that has prevailed for years.
“Of all the major areas, China is always considered the biggest national risk,” OCTA said. “This shows a broad and geographically widespread consensus.”
China’s embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a Viber message seeking comment.
OCTA said the increase between July and December does not mean there is a sudden change in sentiment but rather a strengthening of an already entrenched sentiment.
Public concern, the group added, appears to be reacting to recent actions while still maintaining a high level of threat perception.
Relations between the Philippines and China have deteriorated in recent years as Beijing continues to assert expansive claims in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which billions of dollars in global trade pass each year.
China claims a large area under its U-shaped nine-dash line, which includes the exclusive economic zones of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and Taiwan.
Manila has repeatedly rejected China’s claims, citing a 2016 ruling by a United Nations-backed tribunal that rejected Beijing’s position under international law. China refused to recognize the decision.
Clashes between Philippine and Chinese ships have become more frequent, with Manila accusing Chinese patrol vessels and naval vessels of harassment and dangerous maneuvers, including the use of water cannons near disputed features.
The survey showed that perceptions of China as a threat were strongest in the National Capital Region, where 84% of respondents shared that view. This was followed by Mindanao with 79%, and Luzon and Visayas with 78%.
“China has been identified by the majority of Filipinos as the biggest threat to the country from January 2021 to December 2025, far surpassing all other countries in all waves of the survey,” the surveyor said.
Some countries lag far behind at levels considered dangerous. About 5% of respondents named Russia, 4% pointed to the US and 2% cited North Korea. Another 4% said the Philippines has no external threats.
The survey also showed continued distrust in China. 60% of Filipinos said the Philippines should not rely on China, while 13% said they trust the country. About 23% were undecided.
“Overall, the findings show widespread mistrust of China across demographic, regional and socio-economic groups,” OCTA said.
Infidelity was highest in Luzon at 63%, followed by the National Capital Region at 62%, Mindanao at 58%, and Visayas at 56%. Trust in China was highest in Mindanao at 18%, compared to 12% in Luzon and Visayas and 8% in Metro Manila.
“Even though the most trusted minority exists in certain areas and among young people, skepticism remains a strong feeling throughout the country,” according to the report.
The OCTA survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and over from December 3 to 11. It has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. – Adrian H. Halili
