Five congressional races could determine control of the 2026 House

As Clement Moore’s book “‘Twas the Night Before Christmas” says, families sleep well as Santa approaches.

As the new year approaches, many election contests can be just that quiet – until the closing results suddenly come into focus. Here are five sleeper races to watch in 2026:

1. SECOND DISTRICT OF MISSISSIPPI

Rep. Bennie Thompson, the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee, has not had to worry about a general election challenge since he won a special election on April 13, 1993.

The predecessor is Mike Espy, who recently ran for the Senate when he was unsuccessful with Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss., has resigned to accept President Bill Clinton’s nomination as Secretary of Agriculture.

Thompson’s closest race was that – against Republican Hayes Dent – 55% to 45%.

Since then, Thompson has never looked back, and instead made himself a national celebrity later in his career.

He became chairman of the House Select Committee on January 6, and recently went public with calling the shooting of a West Virginia National Guardsman suspected of being an Afghan refugee “a tragic accident.”

Thompson’s district, which stretches from Jackson west to Yazoo City and Vicksburg on the Mississippi River, is one of the poorest in the country — ranking 3rd out of 435 with a median income of $37,372, according to data published by the Rep.’s office. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio.

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Only Rep. Hal Rogers, R-Ky., and Ritchie Torres, DN.Y. overseeing the poorest of the poor.

Last week, a lawyer and former adviser to Sen. Charles Schumer, DN.Y., filed a surprise motion against Thompson.

Evan Turnage, 33, who was around the same time Thompson was in Congress, has made a point of fighting the region’s persistent poverty in his new campaign, according to Black Press USA.

“I’ve dedicated my life to leveling the playing field so people don’t just pass, but move on, and raise a family right here,” Turnage said, according to the source.

On the Republican side, retired Army captain and Vicksburg heart surgeon Ron Eller will fight an uphill battle to unseat the winner of the Thompson-Turnage battle.

2. CONNECTICUT’S 5TH DISTRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Connecticut is another state that isn’t usually in the political conversation as it hosts nail-biting party elections.

During the Bush-Clinton years, however, the state was competitive if not outright Republican.

Former Gov. John Rowland was the first in decades to be elected to more than two terms. He finally resigned in 2004 due to threats of prosecution by contractors working for the government at his vacation home.

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After his resignation, his wife wrote a poem criticizing the media about the Rowland case, based on Moore’s holiday favorite and called “A Lump of Coal to All Writers.” Rowland’s lieutenant, Gov. M. Jodi Rell, took over and was re-elected once before retiring in 2010.

Since then, the state has remained reliably Democratic — save for former Sen. Joe Lieberman changing his affiliation to an independent.

In 2022, then-Lt. Gov. George Logan — the first black man elected to the upper house in Hartford — filed against then-Rep. Jahana Hayes also lost by less than one percentage point.

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Jahana Hayes D-CT (left) and her 2024 GOP challenger George Logan (right) (Getty & AP)

Logan tried again in 2024, but lost by a narrow margin.

Although Logan is not on the ballot until at least 2026, recent history shows that Republicans may have an outside chance of ending the Democrats’ total control of the New England congressional delegation.

3. SIXTH CONGREGATION DISTRICT OF MARYLAND

Republicans have been seeking to retake the Maryland congressional district since allegations of a coup d’etat ousted 20-year incumbent Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., from office in 2012.

Bartlett, a layman who moved to the West Virginia wilderness to live off the grid, is now 99 years old, and was known for speaking out on a variety of topics that were sometimes neglected but have received new attention recently, including warnings about the capacity, reliability and resilience of the US power grid.

Bartlett won his last campaign by 28 points but then lost by nearly 20 points after the rural district covering the entire Maryland Panhandle was adjusted to include the edges of the densely populated areas of Washington, DC.

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He was defeated in 2013 by then-Rep. John Delaney, chief financial officer – before Delaney was replaced by Total Wine tycoon David Trone, who financed his campaigns to the tune of millions of dollars.

Trone won re-election before going into 2024 to pursue the Senate seat. Benjamin Cardin, D-Md., who was retiring – was eventually won by Democrat Angela Alsobrooks.

He announced this year that he would challenge Rep. April McClain-Delaney, D-Md., the wife of former Rep. John Delaney.

Meanwhile, former longtime state Del. Neil Parrott, R-Antietam, is mounting his fourth consecutive bid for the seat. McClain-Delaney beat Parrott 53-47 in 2024.

The closest Republicans have come to taking the seat since Bartlett’s loss was in 2014, when then-FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino narrowly lost to Throne by nearly a point.

Bongino wanted to make the race national, including recommendations such as Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., also chided Delaney as someone who “would write himself a million dollar check” if he needed to in order to win.

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Del. Neil Parrott, left., Former Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., right. (Tom Williams/Getty Images)

The future G-man suggested at the time that he would like to knock on the door in communities as far away as Oakland and Grantsville, where he said, “no one seems to know who he is. [John Delaney] of course,” according to the Maryland Reporter.

Given the newly drawn, friendly maps that followed the O’Malley gerrymandering process, Republicans may have a chance to surprise in a district in one of the most Democratic states in the country.

4. SECOND DISTRICT OF THE STATE OF NEBRASKA

Although not often considered a swing state, or one that gets a lot of attention in federal elections, Nebraska’s urban-leaning state could determine the future of the House of Representatives if the race is as close as it has been in recent years.

Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., one of the few in his party who has spoken out against Donald Trump, is retiring. District – based in Douglas and Saunders counties; including Omaha and Ashland – already have a number of candidates on both sides hoping to take the middle seat.

Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding leads Sen. Brett Lindstrom, R-Omaha, in fundraising, while on the Democratic side, at least five people, including congressional staff James Leuschen and Sen. John Cavanaugh, D-Omaha, has thrown their hats in the ring, according to the Nebraska Examiner.

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Bacon, who hails from suburban Sarpy County, won his last race against Sen. Anthony Vargas, D-Omaha, by less than one percentage point.

After a recent wave of GOP losses in Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Jersey, the district looks like a tough one for Republicans in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat since Ben Nelson retired in 2012.

5. THE NEW MEXICO GUBERNATORIAL RACE

While Nebraska is a red state that rarely gets national attention, in the blue book is New Mexico.

Geographically and culturally similar to Texas’ redneck neighbor and Arizona’s formerly redneck neighbor on the one hand, the Land of Enchantment tends to appeal to the politically observant viewer.

In particular, its mountainous border with Mexico has largely blocked Trump’s wall debates focused on its neighbors’ flat, desert and river border.

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The US Capitol Building at sunset on January 30, 2025 (Emma Woodhead/Fox News Digital)

Although it doesn’t have the urban population of many green states like New York, California, New Jersey and Maryland, Republicans have been losing power there for years.

Former Sen. Pete Domenici, RN.M., was the last such attorney to represent the country in the upper chamber.

He retired in 2008 and was replaced by Sen. Tom Udall, DN.M., whose last name is the Mountain West equivalent of Cuomo or Casey. The headquarters of the Department of the Interior is named after Udall’s father.

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has a term limit. While he was preceded by a Republican, Susana Martinez, his state has been leaning toward Democratic allegiances otherwise.

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Deb Haaland, a former New Mexico congresswoman who served as President Joe Biden’s Interior Secretary, is the biggest name in the Democratic field, while Gregory Hull, the longtime mayor of Rio Rancho, is the GOP.

Rep. Gabe Vasquez fended off a challenge from incumbent Yvette Herrell in the 2nd congressional district, which covers the southwestern part of the state including Alamogordo and Las Cruces, in what was seen as the GOP’s best chance to re-enter the border district.