FMCG sector growth will moderate in 2026 amid a sluggish economic outlook

The country’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is expected to grow slowly in 2026 amid negative effects from last year’s weak economic growth, according to a Worldpanel opinion released by Numerator on Friday.

Household FMCG – which includes packaged foods, beverages, and home and personal care products – is expected to grow by 3% to 4% in 2026, slower than the 5.2% increase recorded in 2025.

The sector also posted a 0.9% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025.

“Therefore, it is still growing faster than our GDP (gross domestic product), and thus we say that the FMCG sector is actually a bit stronger,” Ms. Obana, director of shopper insights at Worldpanel by Numerator told the media during the launch.

“So, most people don’t have a lot of money,” he said. “Instead of eating out or buying fresh food, they tend to buy packaged goods.”

Mrs. Obana added that this projection also reflects the economic situation of Economic Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan, noting that the effects of last year’s decline, although decreasing, are expected to continue in 2026.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that GDP increased by 4.4% in 2025, below the target of 5.5%–6.5% set by the Development Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC).

GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 fell to 3%, a post-pandemic low, compared to the same period in 2024 and a revised growth of 3.9% in the third quarter of 2025.

Mr. Balisacan previously said the slow growth was due to bad weather that disrupted economic activity, as well as the conflict over flood control that faced government spending, investment, and consumer demand.

Despite slower GDP growth, FMCG demand continues to face pressure from higher commodity prices, as core inflation eased to 1.8% in December, Ms Obana said.

PSA reported that inflation eased to 2.0% in January.

To ensure sustainable growth of brands in 2026, Worldpanel has identified the consumer segments that posted the highest spending in 2025. The analysis is based on a panel of 5,000 Filipino households whose purchasing behavior is tracked to represent about 29 million households nationwide.

Among them is the “silver market,” or consumers aged 55 and over, who have been found to have stronger purchasing power and spend 10% more than those under 55.
Pet owners also offer a range of products. About 67% of Filipino households have pets, while 83% of pet owners have not spent on dog food, despite a 16% increase in spending over the past 12 months.

Pet households were also 1.49 times more likely to purchase pet cleaning products than non-pet owners.

Households with overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) also offer growth opportunities, as they spend 25% more than OFW households, while 73% of FMCG categories represent high-spending consumers among OFW households.

Numerator also identified opportunities in personal and home care products, shopper touch points, and lifestyle dining segments that brands can tap into.

To exceed the growth rate of FMCG, Ms. Obana said companies must strengthen their proposition to consumers.

“When market conditions improve, consumers may reduce their focus on cheaper products, but brands must demonstrate that they offer better taste, nutrition, or other value in order to justify higher prices,” he said.

Worldpanel by Numerator, a US-based data and technology company, is a consumer panel that provides insights into consumer behavior to help shape the strategies of the world’s leading brands. – Edg Adrian A. Eva