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Storms and ongoing and RorThrowing Insults is Inclusive igovoEnrment flood control projects May it lead to slower economic growth in the third quarter, the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA & P) said.
In its latest market report released on Wednesday, UA&P said that the Philippine Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.2% last quarter, below the government’s target of 5.5-6.5%.
“We put the GDP Slowdown to a 5.2% year-on-year (third quarter) due to more weather disturbances and economic economist Antonio Angonia.
This is slower than the 5.5% expansion recorded in the second quarter but matches the pace recorded in the same three-month period last year.
GDP data for the third quarter will be released on November 7.
Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan earlier said that growth may soften further in the third quarter due to typhoon-related disruptions due to typhoon-related disruptions but it has yet to meet the end of the Government’s target.
Meanwhile, UA and P economists said economic growth could pick up 5.7% in the fourth quarter, which would bring the full-year average to the very low end of the government’s target.
Mr Abola and Mr Abonia said there were “good signs of recovery” for the quarter as they expected house prices to drop to 1.6% over a three-month period, which would support domestic demand.
Headcount fell to 1.7% in September, faster than the 1.5% clip in August but slower than the 1.9% seen in the same month last year. However, this marked the seventh straight month that the consumer price index (CPI) was below the bangko sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% annual target.
In the first nine months, inflation reached 1.7%, matching the full BSP forecast.
They added that the recovery of the Employsent See in August was also good for growth. The country’s unemployment rate stood at 3.9% in the month of hiring in the agriculture and construction sectors, below a three-year high of 5.3% in the same month last year. However, the year-over-year unemployment rate was a tad higher at 4.1% from 4% a year ago.
“Strong charges from overseas Filipino workers can be supported by consumption, exports and remain strong despite the tariffs imposed by the United States on Philippine goods.
The money paid increased by 3.2% to $ 2.977 billion in August, bringing this eight months to $ 22.909 billion, up by 3.1% year on year. Filipinos abroad are expected to send more money home in the coming months during the holiday season.
Meanwhile, the country’s exports rose by 4.6% in August, slower than the 17.6% increase seen in July but faster than the 0.4% increase a year earlier. This led to the lowest trade deficit in six months at $3.54 billion.
More scale cuts
UA and P economists also expect further monetary easing into next year as inflation remains low, which will provide further economic stimulus.
“With its view on ‘Benign’ inflation until 2027, the BSP will probably reduce another 25 bps (basis points) before the end of the policy rates that brought 4.5%,” it said.
“More cuts in 2026 should bring policy rates to 4% or lower in 2026.”
The Central Bank sees inflation at 3.1% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, well within the 2-4% target.
The currency board this month lowered the cost so unexpectedly by Benchmarming the cost by 25 BPS for the fourth straight meeting, bringing the policy rate to 4.75%. It has now cut rates by 175 BPS since kicking off its reduction cycle in August 2024.
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. He said that another reduction may occur in their last meeting this year, rising to 5% when they see their need to clean up as they will lower the energy level due to the strength of the illusion due to the growth potential.
Mr. Abola and Mr. Abonia added that the lower benchmark rates will support the Philippine bond market and reduce the government’s debt burden.
