Humanoid robot market could reach $9tn by 2050 as China drives domestic adoption
The global market for humanoid robots could be worth an estimated $9 trillion by 2050, with China expected to dominate demand and the most basic home models likely to enter homes in the next five years, according to a new study.
A report by the Royal Bank of Canada estimates that humanoid robots could become a central part of everyday life in the coming decades, transforming labor markets and household processes. The domestic sector alone is predicted to account for about 2.9 billion of the total market, representing about a third of global demand.
Early versions of humanoid robots may be limited in capabilities, initially serving niche roles such as entertainment devices or personal fitness assistants. More advanced functionality, including complex household tasks and maintenance tasks, is expected to take much longer to mature, with widespread adoption of fully functional home robots unlikely for up to 20 years.
China is expected to emerge as the world’s largest market, accounting for nearly 60 percent of total demand by the middle of the century. Analysts suggest that more humanoid robots could become commonplace in Chinese households, driven by demographic pressure and an aging population.
Tom Narayan, RBC Global Markets analyst and co-author of the report, said attitudes towards humanoid robots in Asia are very different from those in the West. In many Asian economies, he said, robots are dismissed as science fiction and as a viable solution to structural challenges such as elder care and the shrinking workforce.
“In Asia, humanoids are seen as a necessity,” Narayan said. “In 25 years, you could see hundreds of millions of these robots in homes, helping with everything from caring for the elderly to everyday tasks like ironing clothes or grooming. Once adoption starts at a high level, it could be very fast.”
The sector’s rapid growth has already caused alarm among policymakers in Beijing. China’s National Development and Reform Commission recently warned of a bubble in the humanoid robotics industry, noting that more than 150 companies are now working on similar technologies. Officials have expressed concern that excessive duplication could reduce investment and delay meaningful innovation.
By 2050, the report suggests that humanoid robots could replace up to 40 percent of labor-intensive roles across sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and cleaning. Proponents argue that this could free workers from repetitive and physically demanding jobs, allowing them to move on to higher-value or fulfilling work.
Investment interest is also growing in the United States, especially in Silicon Valley. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has backed robotics startups including 1X Technologies and Figure AI. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is developing Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot at Tesla, with production expected to begin in 2026 and ambitious plans to make up to one million units within five years.
Some experts doubt that the humanoid form is the most efficient design for robots, arguing that specialized machines may be better suited for many tasks. However, Narayan believes that economies of scale will eventually make human-made robots a cost-effective option, especially if they can perform a variety of tasks in human-designed environments.
He added that the long-term business model for humanoid robots could be similar to that of smartphones, with hardware sold at scale and ongoing revenue generated from software and apps, drawing parallels to Apple’s app-based ecosystem.
If predictions prove accurate, humanoid robots could go from novelty to in-demand within a generation, reshaping homes, labor markets and global technology supply chains.
