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Iran and the United States began informal talks on Thursday in Geneva about Tehran’s nuclear talks, seen as a last chance for negotiation as the US has mobilized an air force and warships in the Middle East to pressure Tehran into a deal.
US President Donald Trump is seeking a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program, and he sees an opportunity as the country struggles at home with rising tensions following protests across the country last month.
In the event of a US attack, Iran has said all US military bases in the Mideast would be considered legitimate targets, putting tens of thousands of US service members at risk. Iran has also threatened to attack Israel, meaning a regional war could erupt again in the Middle East.
“There will be no victory for anyone – it would be a devastating war,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told India Today in a taped interview on Wednesday shortly before flying to Geneva.
“Since the bases of the Americans are scattered in different places in the region, unfortunately maybe the whole region will be involved and involved, so it’s a very bad situation.”
Potential controversy over uranium enrichment
Araghchi relays messages to Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer and Trump friend who serves as the president’s special Mideast envoy. The talks are being mediated by Oman, the eastern Arabian Peninsula powerhouse that has long served as a mediator between Iran and the West.
Araghchi met with Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi after arriving in Geneva on Wednesday night. The men “reviewed the views and proposals that the Iranian side will present to reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, based on the guidelines agreed upon in the previous round of talks,” the state-run Oman News Agency said.
An Associated Press reporter saw al-Busaidi after meeting with Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations nuclear watchdog.
Al-Busaidi returned on Thursday to an Omani base on the shores of Lake Geneva. A convoy of vehicles believed to be carrying American diplomats later arrived at the compound, followed by another believed to be carrying Iranian diplomats. Oman later published photos of Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, meeting with al-Busaidi at his residence, signaling the start of negotiations.
After the June war, Trump is pushing for a complete halt to Iran’s uranium enrichment, as well as addressing Tehran’s ballistic missile program and regional military support. Iran is adamant that the talks should always focus on nuclear issues only.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Wednesday that Iran is “always trying to rebuild the elements” of its nuclear program. He said Tehran is not currently enriching uranium, “but they are trying to get where they can eventually.”
The West and the IAEA say Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003. Before the June attack, it was enriching uranium to 60 percent purity — a short, technical step away from weapons-grade standards of 90 percent.
Trump, in his first presidential administration, withdrew the US from the international agreement that had established a framework for testing and imposed restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment. That deal, spearheaded by Barack Obama’s administration, was heavily criticized by US ally Israel.
Supporting Israel, Trump in his second term ordered strikes last year on three sites in the Islamic Republic, part of the 12-day war. Trump said the sites were “destroyed” at the time.
There have been no inspections since last year’s bombing campaign
Iran has said it has not enriched itself since June, but has barred IAEA inspectors from visiting bombed sites. Satellite images analyzed by the Associated Press also showed what was going on at the two sites, suggesting that Iran was trying to probe and potentially retrieve materials there.
US President Donald Trump has justified the bombing of Iran’s key nuclear sites by saying that Iran is very close to developing a nuclear weapon. But how could he be sure? Andrew Chang examines Iran’s claim that its uranium enrichment program is purely for civilian use – and why much of the West remains skeptical. Photos provided by Getty Images, The Canadian Press and Reuters.
US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has not restarted its weapons program, but “has undertaken activities that put it in a better position to develop a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” Although it insists its program is peaceful, Iranian officials have threatened to pursue the bomb in recent years.
If negotiations fail, the uncertainty depends on the timing of any possible attack.
If the goal of potential military action is to pressure Iran into making concessions in the nuclear talks, it is unclear whether limited strikes would be effective. If the goal is to remove Iran’s leaders, that would likely commit the US to a larger, longer military campaign.
There has been no public sign of planning for what will come next, including possible chaos in Iran. Democrats and some Republicans on Capitol Hill have expressed dismay at the possibility of an imminent military campaign without congressional approval, but efforts to pass war powers legislation to curb Trump’s authority have failed.
As US President Donald Trump’s Mideast ‘armada’ approaches Iran, CBC News has tracked the location and movement of naval vessels and military aircraft in the region.
There is also uncertainty about what any military action would mean for the wider region. Tehran could retaliate against America’s allies in the Persian Gulf or Israel. Oil prices have risen in recent days in part because of those problems.
Satellite images captured on Tuesday and Wednesday by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by the AP appeared to show that the US ships normally stationed in Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, were all out of the sea. The 5th Fleet referred questions to the US military’s Central Command, which declined to comment. Before Iran’s attack on Qatar in June, the 5th Fleet similarly dispersed its ships at sea to protect against a possible attack.
