PRICE GROWTH of general goods in the National Capital Region (NCR) rose to an 11-month high in November as demand was boosted by holiday spending, analysts said.
Citing preliminary data, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said the general price index (GRPI) in the NCR grew by 1.4% year-on-year in November, against a reading of 1.3% in October. The growth rate is unchanged from the previous year’s reading.
The index had entered 1.5% in December 2024.
“Inflation can still be driven by holiday demand. High demand for goods and services while supply is playing catch-up can cause price increases during that period,” said Reinielle Matt M. Erece, economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., in an email.
He added that the delayed effects of the price cut may have already started to be felt in the retail sector.
Sir Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said that the rapid growth of the GRPI for November in Metro Manila caused pressures on retailers, early holiday price adjustments, speci.fic commodity price changes despite overall inflation, as well as fundamental effects.
“These factors can cause the retail price index to rise even when national inflation is slowing due to slow growth in food prices,” he said.
In its December policy meeting, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%.
The Monetary Board lowered its deferred repurchase rate for the fifth meeting in a row, making the rate the lowest since September 2022.
The central bank has so far lowered key borrowing costs by 200 bps since starting its easing cycle in August 2024.
In the first 11 months, GRPI growth decreased by 1.1%, much lower than the previous estimate of 1.8%.
Growth in the weighted food index, which accounts for 37.5% of the overall index, rose to 1.5% from 1.3% in October.
The fastest price growth was noted in fossil fuels, lubricants and related products (2.8% from 1.9%), machinery and transport equipment (0.7% from 0.6%), and miscellaneous goods (0.9% from 0.8%).
“Price movements mean that the economy is facing selective inflationary pressures instead of widespread pressures,” said Mr. Peña-Reyes.
Meanwhile, price growth decreased in beverages and tobacco (1.7% from 1.9%); unrefined, inedible items without oil (1.9% from 2.1%); and manufactured goods classified primarily by materials (1.5% from 1.6%).
“Overall, this supports stable but cautious economic activity, with growth likely to continue at a moderate pace rather than accelerating,” Mr. Peña-Reyes.
Mr. Erece said inflation remains below the central bank’s target rate, so concerns about inflation should be limited, although careful monitoring is still needed as the first quarter approaches.
Meanwhile, Mr. Peña-Reyes said that next month’s sales growth “is expected to increase slightly from November’s level but will remain restrained.”
“Regarding price growth for the year 2025, it will probably remain moderate, in line with inflation.”
In November, the consumer price index increased by 1.5% from last year, against a reading of 1.7% in October. The year-to-date rate has been 1.6%, well below the central bank’s target of 2% to 4%.
The PSA uses the GRPI as a means of downsizing the National Accounts, especially in the trade sector, and serves as a basis for forecasting. – Heather Caitlin P. Mañago
