Netanyahu is running to avoid snap elections, despite rising polls from the Iran-National war
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is racing to pass the country’s budget and avoid an early election in which he could lose, as the war with Iran has so far done little to improve his standing in the polls.
In the early days of the war, Netanyahu’s camp saw an opportunity for his right-wing coalition to use the opening salvo that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by holding elections ahead of the expected October date, a source familiar with Netanyahu’s political strategy said.
One way to force snap elections would be to allow parliament to fail to pass a budget by March 31, which under Israeli law would trigger a vote within 90 days. As US-Israeli strikes have killed dozens of senior Iranians, some of Netanyahu’s confidantes have publicly voiced the idea of a June vote.
But nearly four weeks into the failed war to topple Iran’s rulers, Israel’s longtime prime minister is looking to block the election, three members of his government told Reuters.
That effort to avoid an early runoff has included allocating money to political allies to get a majority budget vote in parliament, and rushing the chamber’s Finance Committee to meet next week’s deadline.
Netanyahu’s political spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
In public remarks since 2023, Netanyahu has been rejecting calls to bring elections during wartime.
“I hope that the government will fulfill its term … which means that there will be elections in September or October,” Netanyahu told reporters on March 12, saying that he urged the allies to participate in the war and pass a heavy budget of US $ 225 billion.
Stability in the polls as the war continues
For Netanyahu, the war has helped him shift attention away from Gaza and toward his joint campaign with the US against Iran, where national consensus is strongest. The survey showed broad support among Israelis for the war, which Netanyahu says is aimed at eliminating the existing threat.
But when it comes to votes, the election polls show an unchanged picture since October 7, 2023, when the Middle East was thrown into chaos by a surprise attack by Hamas, which left Netanyahu’s security guarantees fragile.
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Polls consistently show about 40 percent of voters sticking to Netanyahu’s coalition of nationalist and religious parties, 40 percent supporting the opposition and a swing vote so far not moving away from Netanyahu, said Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
Even if Israelis are rallying behind the war’s goals, they are growing weary as it continues without a definitive conclusion or official resolution, after a brief round of fighting in June, Rahat said.
“You have one cycle, a few months of peace, then another cycle,” she said.
A poll published by the Times of Israel on March 19 showed that Netanyahu’s Likud party will win 28 of the 120 Knesset seats, down from 34 currently. Although Likud will be the largest party, his coalition will fall short of a majority, winning only 51 seats, the survey said.
On March 3, Israel’s Science Minister and Likud party member Gila Gamliel told local radio that the election would be held in late June or early July. Members of Netanyahu’s top party and aides made similar comments to Israeli media.
In recent weeks, Netanyahu has admitted that there is no guarantee that the Iranian people will overthrow their rulers. As the war approaches its fifth week, the prospect of a summer election seems remote.
“His plan is to buy time,” said Rahat.
The budget deadline is approaching as the cost of the war rises
With schools closed and workplaces partially open, Iran’s war is costing the economy five billion shekels (US$1.6 billion) a week, according to Finance Ministry estimates.
Netanyahu’s government has had to authorize another 32 billion shekels in defense spending since the start of the Iran war.
With defense costs skyrocketing, there is little money available to satisfy the demands of key constituencies that need Netanyahu’s support in parliament – including Orthodox Jewish groups, who are due to leave his government in 2025.
Those groups have threatened to vote down the budget if the law is not passed for the first time exempting the Ultra-Orthodox from conscription in the Israeli army, an issue that has dogged Netanyahu’s relationship with them since 2023.
But they appear to have backed down on their threats after Netanyahu’s coalition allocated nearly 5 billion shekels to Orthodox schools this month. Spokesmen for the parties, Shas and UTJ, did not respond to requests for comment.
Vladimir Beliak, an opposition member who sits on Parliament’s Finance Committee, said that by approving the funds, Netanyahu’s government chose “the survival of the coalition over the efficient distribution of resources.”
Adding to Netanyahu’s political challenges is his long-running corruption trial on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust, which he denies.
Netanyahu, with the support of American President Donald Trump, has appealed to Israeli President Isaac Herzog to be pardoned. A mid-trial pardon was unprecedented and Israel’s justice system argued against it.
