towards Katherine K. Chan
Handline inflation is possible revealed in November that low food prices, especially rice, may result in higher consumption costs In the month, said the analyst.
A Businessworld A poll of 15 analysts showed an average estimate of 1.6% inflation in November, within the bangko sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.1-1.9% estimate ahead of the month.
If realized, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month was up from 1.7% in October and 2.5% in the previous year.
It would also be the slowest clip in three months or so from the 1.5% seen in August, and would mark the ninth straight month that inflation has fallen below the central bank’s target.
A 1.6% print plus inflation would bring an average of 11 months the price drop is 1.7%, compares the CENTral Bank annual weather.
The Philippine statistics authority is scheduled to release November Inflation data on December 5.
Maybank Investment Bank Economist Azril Rosli, that it is possible that inflation will slow down in November as food price pressures were highlighted.
“Reducing food price pressures, especially in comple stores such as rice and vegetables, was driven by seasonal supply conditions during the harvest,” said Mr. Rosli by e-mail.
Miguel Chanco, outgoing Senior ESIA Economist at Pantheon Macronomics, said that the latest food prices show that the decline in food prices may continue slightly but not “below what is expected.
Union Bank of the Philippines Chief Carlo O. Asuncion said divisive pressures remain dominant in November, especially rice pollution.
“The continued price decline in rice – the highest item in the CPI basket – acted as a powerful dampener on headline inflation,” the email said. “This trend has been well documented and remains a key driver of the study of lower subjects. “
The latest data from the Department of Agriculture shows that the average price of local milling rice fell by 16.45% to P37.28 per kilo from P44.62 per kilo last year. Milled rice likewise declined by 11.68% year-on-year to P42.33 per kilo to P47.93, while special rice increased by 5.12% to P59.92 in 2029 in 2029 in 2029 in 2029 in 2029 in 2029 in 2029 in 2029 in 2029 in 2029.
The ban on rice imports, which was scheduled to end until November 2, was extended until the end – 2025.
Mr. Asuncion said the price movements of other agricultural products were “mixed,” noting that new data limited to vegetables and marriages could bring “some uncertainty.”
ANZ Christian Economist for China Raymond Yeung Yeung and Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou said the “modest increase” in electricity prices could be driven by higher spending pressures.
Manila Electric Co raised the total electricity rate for the second month in a row in November by P0.1520 per Kilowatt hour (kWh (kWh)) to KWH.4702 per kWh.
“Stable global crude oil prices coupled with the strengthening of the peso against the US dollar helped lower transportation costs and operating costs,” said Mr. Rosli. “Furthermore, domestic demand and the transmission effects of the BSP’s monetary policy stance continued to be under severe pressure.”
Angelo B. Taningco, chief economist at the Security Bank, said that the depreciation of the peso may havecaused by the drop in November prices.
The PESO ended the Stroer Version Greenback at P58.645 per dollar in end-November, an increase of 20 centavos from P58.85 in End-October. It recovered slightly after ending the P59 level several times last month, even hitting a new record low of P59.17 on November 12.
The upper room is cut
Analysts continue to see full-year inflation falling below the BSP’s target of 2-4%, leaving room continuous accommodation policy central bank situation.
“We use inflation to average the BSP’s target range this year. It is expected that they will take within the target range next year, mainly due to the fundamental effects,” said Chinabank Research.
Mr Chanco said the BSP’s forecast of 1.7% for this year is “on track, although risks are on the downside.”
Mr. Asuncion said he sees inflation reaching 1.6% this year due to persistent rice shortages, energy costs and food price pressure.
“Demand pressures remain muted, and looking at the risk of shocks – such as geopolitical shocks or irreversible conflicts – it is unlikely to change the trajectory of the year,” he said.
Reinilielle Matt M. Erece, economist at Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc., said he expects the BSP to wait 25 bps at its meeting.
“If we add slow economic growth to the equation, it’s almost guaranteed that the BSP will stay on its path of easing policy,” he said in a Viber message.
In the third quarter, the Philippine economy expanded by 4% annually, down from 5.5% in the second quarter and 5.2% last year. This brought economic growth from September below the government’s annual target of 5.5-6.5% by 5%.
“As a result, inflation should remain subdued, and we expect the Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas to move two additional 25-BP rates during the current easy cycle,” said Mr. A study of An. Zhou.
The Central Bank cut key borrowing costs by 175 bps as it begins tapering in August 2024, bringing the policy rate to the lowest of the three at 4.75%.
Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commerce Banking Corp., said the Headline CPI will remain below the BSP’s target of 3% for the next year, before accelerating the underlying results.
BSP prices return to the target band of 3.1% next year, before reducing to 2.8% in 2027.
