Rice output ‘disappointing’ even after crossing DA’s reduced 2025 target
PHILIPPINE production of palay (unmilled rice) rose 3.01% to 19.68 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025, recovering from last year’s decline but below official projections of more than 20 MMT, analysts said.
Danilo V. Fausto, president of the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc., said BusinessWorld that despite the better weather, the rice produced last year was “more than expected.”
“Rice output of 19.68 MMT is disappointing as the Department of Agriculture (DA) (previously) had projected the output for the year 2025 at about 20.3 MMT to 20.4 MMT,” he said via Viber.
The DA has since lowered its 2025 target to 19.61-19.89 MMT.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that the production of palay last year surpassed the 2024 total of 19.09 MMT, a decrease of 4.85% from 2023.
The PSA also recorded a 2.22% increase in harvested area to 4.75 million hectares by 2025.
Mr. Fausto said that although the harvested area increased and support to the rice industry increased, the production did not meet early projections, warranting a review of the DA’s plans and operations.
Raul Q. Montemayor, the national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, said that last year’s rice production is still below the production levels seen in recent years.
“The result of 2025 is actually lower than 2021 to 2023 in terms of production, harvesting area, and yield. So we are not really improving, and at the moment, the needs of people and rice are increasing,” he said. BusinessWorld via Viber.
PSA has forecast palay output of 19.96 MMT in 2021, 19.76 MMT in 2022, and 20.06 MMT in 2023.
Mr. Montemayor also questioned the inability of production to keep up with demand despite billions of pesos being poured into the rice industry.
“Why is production not meeting demand, why is harvested area declining despite investment in irrigation, and why is yield not improving significantly despite seed, fertilizer, machinery, and other subsidies?” he said.
Jayson H. Cainglet, executive director of Samahang Industriia ng Agrikultura, said the increase in production and harvesting areas last year was a direct result of good farmgate prices in 2024.
“2024 was a good year for rice farmers, with farmgate prices ranging from P18 to P27 per kilo, thus encouraging more farmers to plant palay,” he said. BusinessWorld via Viber.
However, Mr. Cainglet said this year’s production will be weighed down by the sharp drop in farmgate prices in the past two farming seasons, which may discourage farmers from increasing production.
“It’s the same for other crops and the livestock industry. Good farmgate prices will encourage small farmers to plant, and more backyard farmers to raise pigs and chickens,” he added.
Former Agriculture Secretary Fermin D. Adriano said BusinessWorld that with palay production close to 20 MMT, the Philippines will still need to import about 4 MMT of rice this year.
“20 MMT of palay will convert to about 13 MMT of rice. Our rice consumption is more than 16 MMT per year. In other words, we need to import about 4 million MT (including shipments to strengthen our rice inventory) this year to ensure price stability,” he said in a Viber message.
The DA said with the palay production target set at 20.3 MMT this year, rice imports are expected between 3.6 MMT and 3.8 MMT, levels it considers sufficient to meet demand without reducing farmgate prices. – Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel
