Elon Musk’s SpaceX has emerged as a major force in commercial space launch services, satellite Internet, and reusable rocket technology. As a privately held company, the financial benefits from that dominance are limited to a small circle of institutional investors, but that is about to change eventually.
In 2026, SpaceX plans to conduct an initial public offering that will reportedly raise more than $30 billion—potentially the largest IPO in history. The company has not publicly listed or disclosed when the offering may take place, but expect everyone to ask the same question: Should I invest?
In this Giz Quiz, we asked experts to weigh in on the potential risks and rewards of investing in SpaceX. While each acknowledged SpaceX’s technological lead, they also cautioned that valuation, timing, and execution risk could undermine returns for public investors.
Daniel Maguire
Associate Chartered Accountant (ACA) and research analyst who primarily supports the independent technology and robotics strategies of ARK Invest.
A lot of companies are talking about going public, we’ve seen the IPO crazy. But what makes SpaceX different is the lack of competition.
What I mean by that is that SpaceX got the booster 10 years ago and has used it almost entirely for recycling since then. The closest competitor—Blue Origin—just got a booster a few months ago. So while other companies are starting to get partial reusability, SpaceX is full steam ahead with full reusability in its Starship program.
We think that SpaceX is probably one of the most compelling private companies in the world, not only in terms of launch capabilities, but also in terms of Starlink Internet connectivity. They offer direct-to-cell, which provides mobile coverage in dead areas around the world. Recently, SpaceX has shown interest in orbital data centers, which could change the AI race in a meaningful way.
Every investor has a different financial situation and risk tolerance. What I would highly recommend everyone do is educate themselves about SpaceX. Last year, ARK Invest partnered with a company called Mach33 to release an open-source SpaceX valuation model for that purpose. However, our model does not include any orbital data centers, and that may be an additional addition to what is available.
SpaceX’s core strengths are its 10-year legacy on the launch side and its multi-faceted innovation platform. We think that SpaceX is a really productive company that can produce the basic infrastructure for both global communication and AI computing in the next decade.
Jay Ritter
Director of the IPO Initiative and professor emeritus of the University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business. Ritter is known as “Mr. IPO” for his work on initial public offerings, which he studied in addition to asset pricing, valuation, investment banking, and capital structure.
Most shares in IPOs are usually sold to institutional investors, with the exception of smaller offerings known as “penny stock” IPOs with an offering price of less than $5 per share. SpaceX will be no small offering. Indeed, it may be the largest in history, potentially raising $30 billion to a company worth $800 billion. A small portion of the shares will likely be available for purchase by individuals.
In June 2025, Elon Musk estimated that the company would have revenue of approximately $15.5 billion by 2025, according to Reuters. If a company goes public with a valuation of $800 billion and $15.5 billion in trailing annual revenue, it will have a price-to-sales ratio of 51.6. Historically, companies with at least $100 million in sales and a sales price above 40 have been a disappointment to investors.
From 1980 to 2021, there have been only 13 companies going public in the US with a price-to-sales price-value at the offering price-higher than 40 with sales of at least $100 million per year. For these companies, the average stock price has declined over the past three years, even as the market rises.
These IPOs underperformed the market during their first three years by an average of 38% for investors who bought at the offering price, and by 62% for those who bought at the market’s initial closing price.
The problem is that, in order to keep the stock price from falling, the company has had to rapidly grow revenue and profits over a long period of time, something that is difficult to do. SpaceX may seem different, but the odds are against it.
It is possible that the stock will jump above the offer price on the first day of trading. Therefore, buying shares at the offering price and selling them immediately may generate some profit. But buying in the market will probably result in a loss of money. SpaceX may be a great company, but just because it’s a great company doesn’t mean the stock will be a good investment.
Kimberly Siversen Burke
Director of government affairs at Quilty Space, a financial research, investment banking, and strategic consulting firm specializing in the space sector.
The question of SpaceX IPO depends on the timing. An IPO before Starship is operational will shed technology risk and plan uncertainty for public investors. An IPO after Starship flies will allow SpaceX to sell execution instead of aspiration. That distinction is important because Starlink’s next big growth—V3 satellites and expanded direct-to-cell services—doesn’t work until Starship is launched regularly.
Then there is the long game. Elon’s plans for space-based data centers continue to expand the horizon for growth, but they are not commercially proven, are capital intensive, and are unlikely to generate revenue anytime soon. It’s also worth asking how much of that is about building a real business case versus reinforcing a broader narrative of AI growth that serves as a scaffold for AI measurement rather than predicted cash flow?
What I mean by that is that today’s AI standards assume that commuting can grow indefinitely, but limitations here on Earth (power availability, grid connections, water, cooling, land, permits, etc.) already break that assumption. Space-based data centers sidestep chokepoints by removing all that infrastructure from the ground, which is why its concept (for someone like Elon) serves as the backdrop for an AI-driven market measurement as a potential business line.
Either way, they pose another major engineering, technological, and economic challenge to the Starship, HLS. [Human Landing System, i.e. the upcoming lunar lander]etc. This may be lost in the investor’s blind spot, but it is important to consider because private funds tolerate long arcs and narrative elasticity much better than public markets, which is the delivery of values. Musk understands that.
Any IPO is likely to be premature with SpaceX’s belief that it has crossed the Rubicon—from ambition to utility-scale infrastructure—and no longer needs a story to bridge the gap. The question is whether the markets agree.
Matthew Weinzierl
Joseph and Jacqueline Elbling Professor of Business Administration and Senior Dean for Faculty Development and Research at Harvard Business School. Weinzierl is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Commercialization of the space industry and its economic implications is the focus of his research.
The truth is that each of us has invested heavily in SpaceX. Space may seem like a niche industry, but it touches our lives in countless ways every day, from GPS to communications, from crop and weather monitoring to weather forecasting, and from scientific research to national security.
SpaceX is the leading company in space today. In just 20 years, it has gone from a start-up to the world’s leading provider of rocket launches, operating more than half of all satellites in orbit, and serving as the backbone of America’s national security.
Whether we own the stock directly or simply benefit from the innovation and efficiency it has created, we all have to hope that SpaceX (and its competition) will succeed.
