towards Aubrey Rose A. Inosana, Reporting
The Philippine economy it is impossible for you to get a lift Fourth-quarter demand is at the low end of its full-year target, as spending and investment are expected to remain subdued amid the corruption scandal, the analyst said.
Analysts say it is also time for economic managers to revise their 5.5% to 6.5% GROGSOD PRODED COURDOD COURDOD COURDOD (GDP) Goal of Domestic Growth (GDP) for 2025.
Jonathan L. Ravelos, senior consultant at Reyes Tacandong & Co, said Philippine GDP may have grown by 6.9% in the fourth quarter to register at least 5.5% growth for the full year.
“The Government’s economic team has been hit hard by public consumption as the key to Momentum. In response, I have changed my GDP targets to 5.3% (from 5.6%),” he told 5.8%) Businessworld in a Weekend viber message.
Philippine GDP expanded by 4% in the third quarter, the fastest from 5.5% in the second quarter and 5.2% a year ago, as public construction that included infrastructure projects eased consumer and consumer sentiment.
This was a slower pace than the 3.8% sales at the height of the pandemic in the first quarter of 2021. Despite the pandemic, this growth was weak from the third quarter of 2011.
This brought the nine-month average to 5%, slightly lower than the 5.9% in the same period last year.
Reinilielle Matt M. Erece of Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc. the economy may not grow by 7% in the fourth quarter.
“We can expect to grow by 5.2% mostly given the economic stimulus. Continued recovery, add to that the GDP growth of the third,” says investment with the trend below, “says the message of Viber on the weekend.
Mr. Erece said that the strong income will not be enough to drag from the emerging issues and economic disruptions from the recent seasons.
Economic Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said on Friday that hitting even the lower end of the Government’s 5.5% to 6.5% target will be “a big challenge,” especially with the many storms expected this quarter.
Ing Bank Regional Head of Research, Asia Pacific Deepali Bhargava warned that the use of money banned by Suggish could be a long drag on the economy, destroying financial sentiments, businesses and the sentiments of private companies.
Government spending rose 5.8% in the third quarter, slowing from 8.7% in the previous quarter, but faster than the 5% growth in the same period in 2024.
“While agricultural and private consumption are likely to rebound in the fourth quarter, investment and traditional spending are likely to remain muted, keeping overall GDP growth numbers subdued,” Ms Bhargava said in a report on November 7.
Conducting a Business Outlook survey, Ms Bhargava noted the 12-month confidence index fell to its lowest level since 2022 in the third quarter, with respondents most optimistic about construction and real estate.
“Furthermore, export strength in Q3 provided some support, but this strength could end in 2026 as the full impact of higher tariffs takes hold,” he said.
Ing now sees 2025 GDP growth of 4.7%, down from its initial forecast of 5.2%.
‘Ugly all around’
Pantheon Macromonomics Chief aspiring Asia Economist Miguel Chanco described the Philippines GDP Print as “Ugly all around” and warned that the worst is yet to come.
“Looking ahead, things are likely to get worse before they get better, as the anti-depried drive on public infrastructure projects begins to operate only in the third quarter,” said the report on November 7.
Mr CHANCO WASHUNGE FUGENE FUSION CRCKINS IN THE DAMEDEDION DECUME, AFTER AN IMPORTANT CHANGE TO FIND NO SIGNS OF BREAKING THE LAW “But it is possible that the blood will pass in the fourth quarter.
For Mr Chanco, the only real bright spot was the sale of services, which was revised up 2.4% quarter on quarter.
“We’ve been below expectations for economic growth for a while, but it’s clear today that we still have to downgrade our 5.3% and 5.4% forecasts for this year and next, respectively, respectively,” he said.
The Union Bank of the Chief Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said in an email that 4% growth in the third culture counter of the effects of difficult financial conditions, foreign spending has slowed down.
“While domestic consumption remains positive, the drag from weak manufacturing and exports underscores the need for public investment and targeted support for critical business sectors,” he said in a Viber message.
In the third quarter, household final spending, which accounts for more than 70% of the economy, grew by 40% from 5.3% to 5.3% in the second quarter and 5.2% last year.
The formation of the largest capital, the investment part of the economy, provided by 2.8% and compared to the growth of 12.8% last year and the increase of 1.2% in the second quarter.
Capital Economics noted that the performance of the Philippines 3 third is very comparable to the region – including Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam, where growth accelerated during the period.
“Uncertain confidence and fear of exposure could prevent firms from committing to new investment projects, while delays in public procurement weigh more heavily on demand,” it said, saying the weakness in employment is likely to persist in 2026.
Despite the absence of broad political implications, Ms. Bhargava said the campaign against corruption is increasinganticipation of the recession.
“It is sad that neighboring countries in the Southeast (Southeast countries) such as Vietnam are growing at a very fast pace compared to us. We do not have competitive opportunities, and most importantly,” said the good management.
Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto previously said that the economic recovery from the corruption scandal is “temporary,” adding that he proves the recovery of the economy in 2026.
Mr RavelAsAs said that for investment to return to the fourth quarter, the government should ‘fix the problem of corruption and restore public trust.’
“In the meantime, watch out for the execution of the broad monetary policy. If spending remains subdued, the resilience of the private sector and investment will be important in boosting growth,” said Mr. Ravelas.
Upper chamber for BSP cutting
At the moment, the economic beauty is weakpects and price increases The outlook will give the Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP) enough room to continue its tapering cycle, its analyst said.
Capital Economics said in a report that the latest GDP results “confirmed” the possibility of rates for the BSP’s rate cut in its Dece D. 11 meeting.
“We continue to expect a two-point average (BP) two-point (BP) cut this cycle (one before the start and the other at the beginning of 2026) but the risks are more easily questioned than we currently expect,” he added.
Eng Ong Bhargava said the Shember-Quarter change reinforces their call for a rate cut of 25 in DECEMBER.
Starting its cycle in August 2024, the monetary board cut its key policy rate by 175 bps to an annual rate of 4.75%.
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. he has signed off on easing cuts until next year to help support domestic demand and has been an illusion of investor sentiment and economic prospects.
“With lower inflation and the BSP is likely to enter the accommodation channel in early 2026, without the 25-BP cut in December,” said Mr. Ascension.
In the 10-month period, inflation reached 1.7%, fully in line with the BSP’s forecast and still within the 2-4% target.
“Nevertheless, we expect growth to regain momentum, even though global demand risks and financial constraints have remained,” said Mr. Asuncion.
