The Spanish title race is on a knife’s edge as two top trading spots are at fault

Seven days ago, the narrative surrounding the LaLiga title race this season seemed clear. Despite holding a small advantage, Barcelona were performing at a much higher level than Real Madrid. Many expected them to finally knock out their rivals, who have been humbled to cheat for the better part of 18 months.

However, the events of the past week have cast serious doubt on that. Defeats in the Copa del Rey and La Liga in the space of five days have left Barca’s plans for another domestic trophy in tatters.

They found themselves facing Atletico Madrid, after the first half at the Estadio Metropolitano. Hansi Flick’s side also now trail an unconvincing Real Madrid side by two points in La Liga, after losing 2-1 against Catalan rivals Girona on Monday.

Flick’s tactics under the spotlight after Barca’s poor week

The result of the Catalan derby has been the subject of talk of a new VAR controversy, after the officials chose not to review Jules Kounde’s clear error in the build-up to Girona’s winner. Barca have reason to feel hurt, but it should not detract from what has been the second most frustrating performance in as many games.

As Atleti did before the break last week, Girona attacked in waves in the second half on Monday, constantly finding space to exploit behind Barca’s high line. Although the home team may have been lucky with the decision, it was Fran Beltran’s winner.

Despite dominating the area, Barcelona allowed nine big chances and 5.23 xG in those two games. There were spells in both games where the flaws in Flick’s approach were exposed for all to see, with numerous defensive errors adding to the chaos.

The German isn’t going to completely tear up the playbook, and he shouldn’t. His dangerous, attacking style of football has not only brought joy back to many Barca fans, but has sealed all four domestic trophies on offer since the 60-year-old’s appointment in 2024. It also took the Blaugrana to reach the Champions League final last season, after years of failure in the continental stage.

None of this should be forgotten, but Flick now has some serious decisions to make when it comes to dealing with difficult spells in certain games, and especially regarding his approach to very difficult games.

Reports indicate that some players have expressed concern about the tactics being used, and the continued use of the top line in matches when players like Pedri and Raphinha are not present, as has been the case for the past few weeks.

Real Madrid under pressure are still collecting points

While Barcelona continue to move the ball well, and are always clicking in the final third regardless of who starts, Real Madrid lag far behind in that. There is an obvious reliance on Kylian Mbappe, who has scored 43% of his club’s league goals, but the pieces around him don’t seem to fit, with a lack of intelligence in midfield another key flaw.

Throw in the selection issues at right-back and in the middle of defence, which have been ongoing throughout the campaign, and you’d think Real Madrid would be down a lot.

Not only that, but Los Blancos are actually on track for a season with 95 points. That would be the third-highest in their history, matching the mark achieved two years ago under Carlo Ancelotti, where they lost just once in the league. The 2009/10 (96) and 2011/12 (100) campaigns were the only times they achieved more.

This situation can say a lot about the current level of LaLiga, which is probably as poor as it has been in previous years, even Villarreal in third place does not seem to be able to reach the same level as beating the top two, or other top European clubs.

However, a certain degree of credit must still go to Real Madrid for continuing to get over the line and win games, despite the problems at hand. They have won their last eight games in LaLiga, while Alvaro Arbeloa’s 100% league record remains intact.

With Vinicius Junior and Trent Alexander-Arnold both starting to produce more, the momentum is currently on the side of the Spanish capital.

Important games that can decide the title

Both Real Madrid and Barcelona currently boast a 79% win rate in LaLiga 2025/26. If that continues, each team is expected to skate three more times before the end of the campaign.

Therefore, every point dropped will be very important, and the title race may come down to what happens in a few key games.

Barcelona’s chances of getting back on track are helped by four of the next five games at the Camp Nou. They boast a 100% home record in LaLiga this term, suggesting that next month’s trip to Bilbao is the only real risk of them falling short of top points, although San Mames have not been a stronghold for Athletic Club this season.

Real Madrid have tough games coming up against Osasuna and Celta Vigo. That suggests the lead could change hands again before matchday 29 and 30, which will be key as the top two face Atletico Madrid either side of the international break. Although they are out of contention, Diego Simeone’s side will still help shape the title race.

Those games are yet to be decided, but the title can be won and lost between 33 and 35 days, with both teams facing tough back-to-back games before El Clasico at the Camp Nou on the weekend of May 9/10. Midnight in the second week will also include the semi-finals of the Champions League should either team reach that stage.

The nature of things this season suggests that this story may not be resolved until the final weekend. Real Madrid finishes at home against an Athletic Club team that may be fighting to enter Europe. Meanwhile, Barcelona’s last game is at the Mestalla against Valencia, who may need a result to stay up.