What is happening in Iran? To crush the deadly protests that rock the country
Experts say it poses one of the biggest challenges to Iran’s clerical rule since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Nationwide protests have rocked Iran for weeks. They started on December 28 due to rising prices, then turned into anti-government protests against the clerical rulers who have ruled the country for almost 50 years.
More than 500 people have died so far in the unrest, according to the rights group. Meanwhile, the US is threatening military action, Iran is threatening retaliation if the US attacks, internet and phone systems are cut, and there are rallies around the world to support the protests.
“What we’re seeing is shocking. Despite the bullets, the arrests and the complete shutdown of the Internet, ordinary Iranians are still risking everything for freedom,” Parmida Barez, an Iranian writer and Canadian activist, told the CBC News Network on Saturday.
“These protests are different than what we’ve seen in years past, mainly because they’re driven by economic hardship,” Kamran Bokhari, executive director of the Washington, DC-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, recently told CBC’s Hanomansing Tonight.
So, what happened? Is this a time of change for the people of Iran?
Let’s break it down.
WARNING: The video contains disturbing images | Hundreds of people have died in Iran after attacks on protests across the country and the US has been warned not to intervene or face military retaliation.
Why did the demonstrations begin?
The protests were initially caused by rampant inflation.
In particular, it was established on December 28 when shopkeepers closed their shops because the money had fallen, making them unable to do business, the BBC’s chief correspondent Lyse Doucet recently explained BBC Newscast a podcast.
Prices for basic items like chicken and cooking oil had skyrocketed, with some items disappearing from the shelves entirely, according to CNN.
But why? However, as the Associated Press explains, Tehran is still reeling from its 12-day war with Israel in June when the United States bombed three of Iran’s nuclear sites.
Economic pressure – which has intensified since September, when the United Nations reinstated sanctions on the country over its nuclear program – has sent Iran’s currency into a slump, now trading at an IRR of more than 1.4 million to $1.
The collapse of the rial led in the growing economic crisis. In addition, in December Iran introduced a new tier of prices for its nationally subsidized fuel, raising the price of one of the world’s cheapest natural gases and further squeezing the population.
And the Central Bank of Iran has significantly reduced the exchange rates of the subsidies it offers to importers and producers.
From there, the protests turned into something bigger.
“Every wave of chaos leaves a ripple, so that when the spark lights up, it lights the embers of the final riot,” said the BBC’s Doucet.
“So it quickly spread from protests and strikes about the cost of living, because of inflation … to slogans being said in the streets, like ‘death to the dictator.’
How big are the protests now?
It’s hard to say exactly because Iran’s state media has provided little information, and the government has not released casualty figures. The continued shutdown of the internet and the blocking of international calls make it difficult for journalists to independently assess what is going on.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which relies on a network of activists inside Iran, reported on Sunday that 585 protests had taken place in 186 cities in all 31 provinces of the country.
They added that the death toll has reached 544, and “a number of cases are still being reviewed.” About 10,680 people have been sent to prisons following the arrests, according to HRANA.
All told, this would make the protests the biggest in Iran since 2022, according to CNN. It was then that the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, in police custody, sparked nationwide protests against the Islamic State.
Why are protests increasing?
Iran has been governed by democracy since 1979, the year of the Islamic Revolution, when clerics overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. This led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, then by his son, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s bazaar merchants and merchant class were the financial backbone of the revolution. Now, decades later, they have turned on the pastors who helped put them in office.
The economic disparity between ordinary Iranians and the clergy and security, as well as economic mismanagement and state corruption, fueled discontent during the economic crisis, according to Reuters.
“This is a situation where you don’t just see young people protesting,” Bokhari, with the New Lines Institute, told CBC.
Many people are now calling for radical political change, with slogans such as “down with the ruler,” referring to Khamenei. And others were expressing their support for Reza Pahlavi, who was exiled the son of the last shah of Iran, who has become a prominent voice mobilizing the protesters.
Iran has faced protests in recent years, from the Green Movement to the Mahsa Amini protests – but none have toppled the government of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Kamran Bokhari of the New Lines Institute discusses whether the recent protests will be different.
How did Iran respond?
As the New York Times reports, the Iranian government initially indicated it was willing to comply. It had announced plans to give its citizens a monthly stipend of about one million Iranian tons to ease economic pressure – equivalent to $11 Cdn a month.
The government has also tried to distinguish between protesters and what it sees as legitimate protesters, Bokhari told CBC.
“I think they have given up on that, that’s why they broke so hard because of the internet blackout and reports of using force.”
On Friday, Iran’s chief justice, Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, vowed that the punishment of the protesters “will be final, with no formal concessions,” according to Reuters. The New York Times adds that he also warned that “all criminals involved” would be considered “enemies of God.”
Raha Bahreini, Amnesty International’s Iran researcher in London, told CBC on Friday that Iranian authorities have killed scores of protesters and bystanders.
Bahraini said Amnesty’s investigation in 13 cities in 8 provinces found that the security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and the police, used rifles and loaded guns against the protesters.
How is the US involved?
Trump has repeatedly pledged that he will attack Iran if protesters are killed, something that has become more important after the US military attack that captured the former president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro.
Trump said on Sunday that Iran had called for talks on its disputed nuclear program. Iran said on Monday it was keeping communication open with the US But, according to Reuters, parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned Washington of “making a mistake.”
“Let’s be clear: If there is an attack on Iran, the areas that are taken [Israel] and all American bases and ships will be our official targets,” he said.
Will this protest be different?
Iran has experienced several uprisings over the years, but none have ever brought down the government. And as Reuters notes, despite the scale of the current protests, there are no signs of a split in the leadership of the Shi’ite clerics, the military or the security forces.
The regime is weak right now, but it’s also unlikely to collapse anytime soon, Bokhari told CBC News Network in a separate interview Monday. But, he added, “something has to give.”
There is already an internal process underway focused on transitioning to a new top leader, he said, adding that he thinks that’s where people should stay focused.
However, Iranian author and activist Barez told CBC that he believes that Iran’s dismissal of protesters as terrorists, and that it will not back down, shows that the regime is threatened and weak.
“It sets the tone for them … to criticize the Iranian people,” Barez said.
“But the Iranian people are not backing down. They have seen this happen many times. The fear is gone.”
